Julian Borger

Now, in terms of sort of social cohesion, that's always the unknown, but there hasn't been a major change.

threat to the regime since these attacks.

See, a whole dream of regime change that was really sold to the Americans by the Israelis has not materialized.

So as a regime, it is not under direct threat.

Arguably, it's been strengthened.

The harder line elements, the IRGC, have been strengthened since the war began.

So they believe that they can hold out and that is their strategy to outlast the Americans.

Well, they're only going to target Israeli shipping, so it won't close the Red Sea, which was, of course, a great fear that as well as the Strait of Hormuz, this other vital global portal, the Red Sea, leading up to the Suez Canal, would also be blocked.

They're not doing that because they realize that that would bring on intensive attacks on them once again.

And they're trying to rebuild since the ceasefire with the Americans last year.

They are trying to rebuild.

On the other hand, they cannot be seen to be shying away from defending America.

Hezbollah and taking action alongside Iran in case of an extremist.

So the Houthis too have to walk a line.

They don't want to bring in the full wrath of the Americans on them, but they want to show that they are still a player.

I think the whole thing remains really fragile.

As long as they can't come to an overall deal, then the situation in the region is really dangerous, especially as you have someone in the middle of that.

This is Benjamin Netanyahu himself.

who is in his interest to keep a conflict going and to, in his eyes, finish the job with Iran.

Though, from his point of view, they're still unfinished business, which makes this sort of limbo between war and peace that we're in at the moment all the more dangerous.