Israel and Iran trade strikes: what does this mean for peace deal? – The Latest
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What recent events have escalated tensions between Israel and Iran?
This is The Guardian.
It's a test of strength between the two men.
Are you and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the same page?
Yeah, we are. We get along very well. Trump, once again, prices under control. And in particular, he would like some peace while the World Cup is on. It's a big thing for him, his prestige project. He outwardly claims to have a complete control of the situation. Obviously, he doesn't.
From The Guardian's Today Focus, this is The Latest. I'm Nosheen Iqbal. Julian Borja, you're The Guardian's senior international correspondent, and you've reported extensively from the Middle East and Washington. It's now been 100 days since this war with Iran began, and there's been a fragile ceasefire in place since April. But over the last 24 hours, we've seen this dramatic escalation with missiles being launched for the first time in two months. Direct strikes on northern Israel and with fresh explosions heard in Tehran just this morning. Julian, what on earth is going on?
Well, in the 100 days since the ceasefire, obviously, there's been no deal. The U.S. and Iran have been unable to come to an agreement, whether it's over the nuclear issues of how much cash Iran wants up first for opening the Strait of Hormuz. They haven't been able to get to a deal. And we're in that vacuum in the absence of a peace deal. This long running Israel-Hazbollah war in Lebanon has stepped up. It continues to burn away in the sort of in the undergrowth and it flared up over the weekend. Hezbollah inflicted some casualties on Israeli IDF. Israel hit back by hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut, Dahir. Now, that was supposed to be out of bounds under this loose agreement between US and Israel and Iran.
And Iran has said, you come anywhere near Beirut, we will strike back. And so when Israel did that. Then Iran, to sort of save face, having guaranteed Hezbollah that they would protect them in Beirut, launched a salvo of missiles, the first since the ceasefire. They were all intercepted, but Israel was not going to hold back without a response. Trump tried to get Netanyahu not to retaliate. That's not really acceptable inside Israeli politics, not to strike back. And so Netanyahu struck back.
Clearly, there was a calculation that had they launched those attacks on Beirut, then Iran would have responded in the way that it did. These attacks happened just hours after Trump made clear that he had called Netanyahu and asked him not to retaliate, presumably to demonstrate to the Iranians that there was some distance with the U.S. between these attacks and Israel. Trump apparently is desperate to end the war. In a phone call with the Financial Times on Sunday, he said, I call the shots. Netanyahu doesn't call the shots. Julie, what do you make of these contradictions and of the state of the relationship between the two of them and, you know, what the war game really is here?
Well, they've got two different constituencies. Trump, once again, prices under control. He wants to stop a market to do well. And in particular, he would like some peace while the World Cup is on. It's a big thing for him, a prestige project. And he has said there is going to be a ceasefire. And the ceasefire I hold is a question and a test of his authority. He outwardly claims, overtly claims to have complete control of the situation. Obviously, he doesn't, because Netanyahu has his own constituency. The right wing in Israel is not going to stand for an attack from Iran without an Israeli response. They're not going to stand for a Hezbollah attack without some significant response. He has to keep his coalition together.
He is... heading towards elections, which at the moment, at present rankings, he will lose. His block will lose out. So he has to do something. The peace deal as it stands, as it has been laid out in reports, does not suit him at all because he will go to the country not having done what he set out to do, which was to stop the nuclear program in Iran once and for all. This deal, if it is as it stands, will not do that.
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