Justin Wolfers

Yeah.

But just before I came on air with you, I checked the latest betting markets on Kulshi, where you can bet on how long until the straits reopen and the flow of oil is back to normal.

And for sure, no one believes that four to six weeks was ever going to be true.

But they're talking about months rather than years.

So let me break that down.

That says the direct, what's going on in Iran with the Strait of Hormuz is a months long issue.

The world, though, is more dangerous and will remain more dangerous for years.

And I think the thing that's really – and so that's why you're going to continue to see oil price futures substantially elevated because there's now a risk.

We don't know who's going to do what.

but there could be a next chapter in this story.

Exactly.

And then the final deeply depressing thought I want to leave you with is if 2025 is the year of the unprovoked trade war and 2026 is the year of an unprepared war war, it's time for folks in markets to think about what 2027 holds and 2028.

If you extrapolate, then you should be building in a pretty big risk premium.

And if you're an optimist, you think, well, the bloke has rolled the dice a couple of times, surely he'll learn by now, and we're going to get back to incredibly competent technocratic economic policy any day now.

And I got all my fingers and toes crossed.

It's the most extraordinary thing that...

The most critical issue facing American financial markets is whether to believe the American president or the Iranian leaders about what the Americans are doing.

Should we believe the American president talking to the American people about the actions of America?

Yeah.

And I think it remains very much up in the air.