Justin Wolfers

It could be that markets don't move very much and the president becomes hypersensitive to markets.

Who knows?

This feedback loop is profoundly broken and it would be a lot easier if it was genuinely mechanistic, but it's not.

Maybe, you know, all of this comes back to what,

How do you rewrite the rules of the game when you have an unpredictable president?

And so the idea of Tarko that people found very reassuring is, in fact, the president's very predictable.

I don't know that that's true, actually.

So yes, he Tarkos sometimes, except when he doesn't.

And so you can think about, you know, and I do think you're right to bring up all the past analogies, I think most clearly through the trade war.

But if you remember, Canada went from our number one enemy to our number one friend, and it did like three or four round trips on that journey.

Actually, right now, the rhetoric is profoundly anti-Canadian.

The reality is not very anti-Canadian.

But it's very hard to keep track of, and it's not even clear that the president has.

So...

Mate, if I look a little bit lost, it's because this is very confusing.

So look, here's the safest thing to say.

Markets are reacting as if developments in Iran are tremendously important for the development of the global economy.

Yes.

When you see them move one and a half percentage points based on a truth social post and that takes into account that he might taco, that one and a half percent is a profound underestimate of the true effect of going to war because they don't think that he pulled back from war.

They think there's some possibility he did and some that he didn't.