Justin Wolfers

If you remember Liberation Day, they screamed, they howled.

Right.

We weren't quite used to the Trump two-step of two steps forward and an immediate back down.

If we're in a world in which he never followed through on anything, of course, markets would react to nothing.

Right.

The problem is that the president actually does sometimes do things.

You could ask the Venezuelans about that.

And the problem is we couldn't tell before the fact if he was serious about Venezuela, and then we learned after the fact he was.

And I would like to think he's not serious about Greenland, but I don't want to wake up tomorrow and all of a sudden discover he was.

Right.

So I think this is the markets putting in only a small chance of

but it's a small chance of a big bad outcome.

I've had the same thought.

And look, I like to speak to my expertise.

I'm a PhD economist.

And so there are many questions where, and I've increasingly had to do this, say, I think you should talk to a psychiatrist, not an economist.

What's striking is that the most important economic question of the day is best answered by a psychiatrist.

That's your point.

Right.

And it's a profoundly important point.