Justin Wolfers

One war is a lot of wars.

Walking closer to one war is a lot of problems.

And then the other part is, so he's launched a new trade war with the EU.

The other part is you then learn Tariff McTarriff face

wants to tariff everyone at will.

Deals don't mean anything.

The idea that we'd get through 2025 and that was the end of tariffs because we would have done deals is clearly hopeless.

And we just have trade wars and trade uncertainty for the next three years ahead of us as well.

Those are really, really big generational shifts.

I know I wrote a study years ago looking at the stock market effect of the invasion of Iraq.

We found that if the diff the stocks were valued 15% lower, if the us invaded Iraq relative to if it didn't.

So if you thought something like that, if you thought Greenland were Iraq, there's lots of reasons to think it's not right.

You would expect stocks to fall on the order of 10 to 20%.

Today they fell on the order of one to 2%.

So my interpretation is they've built in a one in 10 chance.

The guy is serious.

In some sense, markets are really useful here that are a wake-up call.

It's not about the probability he follows through.

It's about the consequences if he follows through, which is they're screaming, this is terrible.

But they're not screaming, screaming.