Kai Risdahl

But it's just that in modern times, we have never seen a series of geopolitical shocks to our economy like this.

We've never seen tariffs like this.

We've never seen immigration to the United States being cut off this way, certainly not so suddenly.

We've never seen the Strait of Hormuz being effectively shut down.

oil having its fastest increase in 40 years.

We haven't seen all of those individually.

We certainly haven't seen them collectively.

And so it's really hard to tell what happens when you put all those things together and light a match right there.

Something bad usually would be expected to happen.

It's just it probably will come in a way that we can't quite see right now.

Well, let's crystal ball this.

Courtney, what what are you looking for?

What are you what's your indicator here of choice as as we develop, you know, war and inflation and jobs and all of that?

I'm looking at consumer sentiment and I was at a conference recently and, you know, Chicago Fed President Austin Goldbee was kind of poo pooing.

consumer sentiment data, saying it's not a good predictor of what consumers actually do.

Okay, I get that.

It's true.

But I do think I'm so curious that the pain point, if you will, for consumers, if you look at the sentiment data, has been inflation.

When do we start seeing, do we start seeing consumers saying, hey, it's not just prices I'm mad about.

I'm actually mad about the labor market too.