Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Olen Shannon Maldonado, käsin tehtyjä artesaanituotteita myyvän Jauhi-lahjakaupan perustaja. Valitsin Shopify, koska alustoja testatessani totesin sen ehdottomasti yhdeksi helppokäyttöisimmistä alustoista. Minulla oli tärkeää pohtia kehittymistämme tulevaisuudessa. Kaikki myyntiin tarvittavat työkalut, kuten varaston suunnittelu, ovat kätevästi dashboardissa. Aloita ilmainen kokeilu shopify.com-sivustolla.
Hey, so here's a question. What do strawberry jam and stock market analytics have in common? Stick around. We'll tell you. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risnell. It is Tuesday today, 9 June. Good as always to have you along, everybody. The Strawberry Jam comes to us from the JM Smucker Company, to which we will get in just a second. The Stock Market Analytics come to us from Bank of America. The Setup comes from us, and it goes like this. These are, broadly speaking, headlines.
Heidi days in the equity markets. Record highs practically every time you turn around. Everybody you can think of is filing to go public and trillion dollar companies are basically table stakes now.
However, comma. Bank of America is singing a different tune. In a note last week, B of A, which I should tell you advertises with us, said there are, and this is a quote, too many red flags, end quote, pointing to a market peak, and that it is time to, again I'm quoting because these words matter, take profits. So.
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Chapter 2: Why did Bank of America advise investors to 'take profits'?
Marketplaces Henry Epp gets us going. Stock market analysts don't really speak in plain English, so when they recommend investors take profits... They're really telling people to sell, but they're trying to do it in sort of a market etiquette way. James Weston is with the Rice University Business School. Bank of America declined an interview request. In the report, its analysts offer a couple reasons why now might be the time to sell. One, there are concerning signs in the real economy, says Weston.
We're seeing worsening fundamentals in consumer spending. We're seeing worsening fundamentals in consumer indebtedness. We're seeing a big rise in the price of oil. Two, the value of publicly traded companies is really high right now, especially tech companies. Derek Horstmeier is a professor of finance at George Mason University.
Kun puhutaan arvioinnista yritysten kanssa, se tarkoitaan yleensä yritysten kohdalla. Nyt se on erittäin suuri asia.
Some tech company shares are really expensive given how much revenue they actually generate, which could mean investors are being overly speculative or that the market is nearing its peak, which is why you have analysts saying it's time to take profits. The problem with making that call, says Ben Carlson at Ritholtz Wealth Management, is it's really hard to get right. There have been people who have been trying to call the top on this for 10 years now.
But the market has just kept rallying. So yeah, this might be the moment the stock market hits its peak, or it might not. Larry Adam is at Raymond James, another marketplace underwriter. So until we see major fundamental changes to the economy, to corporate fundamentals, to what the Fed is going to do, we would not recommend making major changes to a portfolio right now.
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Chapter 3: What are the current economic indicators affecting consumer spending?
For those who do think it's time to sell, there's a risk in saying that out loud, says James Weston at Rice. If you tell everyone to sell and everyone sells at once, that triggers a market crash. Which is why analysts use language like take profits. I'm Henry Epp for Marketplace. Wall Street on this Tuesday, there was a little profit taken. Actually, we will have the details when we do the numbers.
You were promised strawberry jam, so strawberry jam shall there be. Smokers, home to Folgers Coffee, hostess Twinkies of course, and the aforementioned preserves. Reported results today, net sales up 4%. Uncrustables it turns out, those frozen PB&Js were a standout. But the company said the year ahead is not going to be as good because of, and this is a quote, I'm doing a lot of quoting today, a dynamic and evolving external environment.
As marketplaces Stephanie Hughes reports, that's an affliction common to a whole lot of packaged goods companies. One big challenge for packaged food companies, Americans are kind of leaning away from eating packaged food. Craig Raleigh is a partner at the consulting firm Corn Fairy. Many people are thinking about healthier foods, walking away from processed foods.
Also a growing chunk of the population is now taking GLP-1 drugs, which means they're eating less food generally. And Raleigh points out people who are feeling stretched financially are more likely to trade down when they're buying a jar of jelly. Many of these people are going to buy the grocery store's private label brand, which can be 10, 20, 30 percent cheaper than a national brand.
Rowley also points out the war in Iran and the high price of oil has pushed up companies' shipping costs. Meanwhile, climate change has thrown a wrench into growing some of the foods that go in these packages. Everything starts in the ground. Even a hostess Twinkie starts in the ground. Phil Lempert is a food industry analyst. If you look at what's gone on with coffee in Brazil because of climate change, if you look at what's gone on with bananas...
Bananas are susceptible to higher than usual temperatures, and coffee crops in Brazil have been hurt by drought. Just about all their crops globally really have to be reimagined. Meanwhile, on-again, off-again tariffs mean company leaders have to make decisions in an ever-changing environment.
Ed Johnson is with Deloitte Consulting. Three different tariff regimes in the last 12 months have made locking in costs for a lot of packaged food manufacturers next to impossible. Johnson says to plan for the future, companies are doing lots of scenario planning. For example, envisioning alternate supply chains. It's all about trying to plan for the different options or different potential outcomes on the variables that you're aware that are in flux.
Johnson says packaged food companies have had to do a lot of this kind of scenario planning since the pandemic. So while it might be stressful, at least they're kind of used to it. I'm Stephanie Hughes from Marketplace.
Olemme puhuneet eilen siitä, miten enemmän ihmisiä mennään elokuville. Se on tullut, että Cinemark, elokuvahjelma, sanoi, että se oli aiemmin suurin elokuvahjelma viime vuonna. Se oli liittyvä, ainakin osaamassa, elokuvahjelmien yliopistoon, ja myöhemmin Backroomsin. Ja kyllä, tietysti isojen studio-elokuvien, Michael, The Devil Wears Prada 2, sinä tiedät niitä niin hyvin kuin minä.
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Chapter 4: How is the ongoing war in Iran influencing oil and gas markets?
Olet monimuotoisuusjärjestö, jossa asetat filantropiaisuuksia. Miten se on sinulle?
It's good. We are seeing a lot of generosity from individuals. I would say a little more challenged on the government funding side of things, the foundation side of things. But the flip side is we're seeing a lot of generosity from our audiences. And that's, at the end of the day, the most sustainable and meaningful giving for us.
We have more members, for instance, than we ever have had in the history of the Belcourt. Which is how many members? We're about to hit 8,400. Oh, wow. So, you know, that's 8,400 Nashvillians, or at least people from the region, putting money on the table and saying, you're an investment that I care about, Belcourt.
Chapter 5: What challenges are packaged food companies facing today?
Kertoisitko minulle hieman ympäristöä ja seurauksia ja seurauksia ja seurauksia ja seurauksia ja seurauksia ja seurauksia ja seurauksia?
It's the most exciting thing that's happening. I mean, to see these movies come out of the gate with such energy and such enthusiasm is really exciting because, I mean, this is a business at the end of the day. And those ticket sales talk to the studios. And the studios are the folks that we need investing in new voices, in truly original filmmaking. You know, so to see...
Suunnitelmat viime vuonna ovat filmit kuten Sinne ja Yksi taiteen jälkeen, jotka kestävät tänne uusiin genre-elokuviin. Se kertoo tarinaa, joka on melko yllättävää ja toivottavasti erinomaisesti kiinnostavaa meidän näkökulmasta. Viimeinen asia, ja sitten jatkan sinut. Oletko nähnyt Odyseyn trailerin? Kyllä. Minulla on joitain vaikutuksia. En ole varma, että ostan Matt Damonin tämän roolin.
Voin sanoa, että olen myös saanut nähdä kuvia CinemaConin kanssa. Olen jäänyt läpi. Luulen, että se toimii. Järjestelmät kiinni. Pidän sinut takaisin, jos en tykkää. Tiedän, että sinulla on ajatuksia, ja arvostan niitä. Olen toivottava kuulemalla niitä, mutta olen optimistinen tällä hetkellä. Stephanie Silverman, hän toimii Belcourt-teatralla Nashvilleissa. Stephanie, kiitos paljon. Oli todella hyvä puhua. Hyvä puhua kaikille.
Tämä seuraava tarina, sanon sinulle edelleen, on todella vaikuttanut joitain ihmisiä. Fitch ja Moody's, kaksi isoja ratkaisujia, ovat olleet uusiin julkaistuksiin öljy- ja gas-sektorin. Jos ajattelee sitä, voitte varmasti nähdä, missä tämä menee. Öljy-vaihto presidentin kanssa Iranin kanssa on Fitchin uudistaminen öljy- ja gas-sektorista ja parantaminen neutraalista, koska öljy- ja gas-vaihtoja on suuri. Moody's pysähtyi positiivisesta näkökulmasta ja sanoi, että yritykset sen sektorissa ovat edelleen suurempia.
Marketplaces Elizabeth Troval has more now on big oil balance sheets. I want to take you all back to a much different time and space. Think Bad Bunny's Super Bowl performance and the Winter Olympics. February 2026. Back then, oil companies weren't exactly in a celebratory mood.
The expectation was for oversupply. So there was an anticipation of the crude oil price languishing in the 55 to 60 dollar a barrel range.
That's Andrew O'Connor with Morningstar DBRS. But instead of languishing, the war in Iran changed oil and gas markets overnight. And it wasn't a one or two week blip either. The now months long crisis has meant substantially different outlooks for companies. Dan Pickering is with Pickering Energy Partners.
In other words. These guys are selling a product that's gone up, you know, a third in value year over year. And so they are making a lot more money by simply doing more of the same.
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Chapter 6: How are foreign trade zones adapting to new tariff regulations?
This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. It's been, well, let's just say a very long time since I've written a cover letter. You know what I'm talking about, right? Dear hiring manager, I'm the perfect candidate for the job opening you have in blah, blah, blah. Well, it turns out cover letters are just one more thing in this economy that's getting disrupted by AI. Anna Altschek wrote about it for Business Insider the other day. Welcome to the program. It's good to have you on. Thanks for having me.
Kertoisitko minulle, miten tuli tähän tarinaan? Kyllä, tämä tarina... Minulla tuli idea siitä noin 6-7 kuukautta sitten. Olin AI-konferenssissa, ja olin katsomassa Wharton-professoraa, joka kertoi minulle hänen
He struggle with hiring research assistants at UPenn and he was basically saying that he has received these email cover letters from students and they're the best he's seen yet and they all seem like they're written by AI because
They're all exceptional. And so he was having a really hard time being able to decipher which was actually top talent, you know, from the ones who just plugged it into ChatGBT and were sending similar emails to other professors. So he was facing this hiring issue. And I thought it was really interesting back then. And as time went on, you know, I've heard more. We covered a story about how, you know, resumes are being deprioritized. And that made me think like, wow, the cover letter is probably long gone at this point.
We will stipulate here that cover letters can be painful to write. They're no fun. And obviously with ChatGPT or AI system of your choice, you just crank them out. So it's not just a quality thing, right? Because you can see when stuff is written by AI and everybody knows it. It's also a quantity thing, right? People are getting drowning in cover letters. Yeah, definitely. I think hiring is up or...
You know, the number of applications that hiring managers are getting is definitely up. People are applying to more jobs on average. And so, yeah, I mean, even this professor I spoke to, he's seen a 20% increase in the last year. But yeah, so if you're getting more applications and all of them are top tier, it becomes really difficult to tell which ones are the actual top talent that you're working with.
This Wharton professor, as you say in this piece, was hiring like what, four or five people to be his research assistant. But there are companies and, you know, not even huge ones, but have to hire dozens, you know, hundreds of people. What are they doing?
Joten yritykset, joita minä kuulin, esimerkiksi BCG... Boston Consulting Group, iso yritys. He pysyivät tarjoamaan lakia noin 10-12 vuotta sitten Suomessa. Mutta nykyään he tekevät enemmän arviointia ja henkilökohtaisia testiä. He lisäävät erilaisia testiä yrityksen kautta. Olemme myös tietoja siitä, että monet yritykset pystyvät tarjoamaan varmistuneita taitoja. Näimme, että LinkedIn
This year they rolled out their verified skills, so basically candidates can take these tests and show their AI skills with different apps. So I think in this era, employers really want to see your work. They don't just want to read about it in a resume or a cover letter. A portfolio, those kinds of things are definitely becoming top of mind for hiring managers. They want to see you actually do your work.
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Chapter 7: What recent trends are impacting the housing market?
Yleensä nyt ulkopuolella. Ja jotka ovat historiallisesti saaneet yritykset importoida tariffiä, ja sitten käyttäneet niitä importeja, jotta he tekevät heidän omaa tuotettaan, jossa on vähemmän tariffiä tai ei edes mitään tariffiä. Sanoin historiallisesti, koska viime vuonna Trumpin hallitus lopetti tämän eri lupauksen. Marketplaces Justin Ho has our story. Yhden vuoden ajan sitten Aaron Stenner halusi löytää uutta paikkojärjestelmää, jota hän tekee Kaliforniassa.
Meidän tarvittiin isompi paikka. Olimme saavuttaneet paljon potentiaalisia asiakkaita valmistamalla täällä Yhdysvalloissa. Stinner Frameworks olisi haastanut tariffit, jotka voisivat olla enemmän kuin 100 prosenttia suomalaisista importteista. Eli Stinners suunnitelma oli rakentaa uuden paikan ulkomaalaisuudessa. Tämä voisi mahdollistaa valmistamme täällä Yhdysvalloissa.
tuoda osaamista ulkopuolelta, yhdistää paitoja FTZin sisällä, ja kun se jätetään FTZiin, saadaan se loppumaan ainakin Pohjois-Amerikan markkinoille tariffipuolella. Sitten Trumpin hallitus vaihtoi sääntöjä. Stinner ei voinut käyttää FTZiä vähentämällä tai vähentämällä tariffipuolen. Joten hän laittoi loppuun asettamiseen siellä. Meillä, jotka yritämme tehdä asioita täällä, se olisi hyvä, jos olisimme voineet tehdä sitä. Se olisi hyvä, jos olisimme voineet tehdä sitä.
But when that's not even happening, it's like, well, what is the point here? Some foreign trade zones have seen interest die down. Drew Rodriguez is with the Port of Wainimi, which oversees one in Ventura County, California. He says inquiries about the FTZ surged after the Trump administration's big tariff announcement last year. But so far this year, only a handful. If people were interested when the tariff craze and hysteria was taking over, they would have already reached out to us by now.
where now they know this either works for me or it doesn't work for me. There are plenty of instances where FTCs still make sense. Jessica Miserandino is import manager with AFL, a company in Duncan, South Carolina, that makes fiber optic cables. It imports a lot of optical fiber from Japan. We have a site in Duncan that is approved as a U.S. foreign trade zone, and all of our manufacturing operations are within that foreign trade zone.
Misurindino says the FTZ still offers advantages, because when you import goods into it... Misurindino says that gives the company more flexibility to deal with tariff bills that can run to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Especially while you're waiting to see what happens with these tariffs. I mean, maybe you want to bring in some material and hold it, because you don't know if they're going to go up. You don't know what's going to change day by day at this point. Being able to delay tariff payments allows businesses to invest that money elsewhere. Ryan Tuhill is director of community and economic development with the city of Phoenix. Looking at the companies that are operators within our trade zone, many of them are going through pretty significant expansions.
Tuhil says those companies include semiconductor manufacturers, aerospace and defense companies. As businesses invest, that's more jobs for folks who live in the Phoenix region. Those businesses are generating revenue that is helping to support all of the public infrastructure and services that we provide as a jurisdiction. Tuhil says the number of businesses using the city's FTZ has steadily increased over the last several years, and so far this year it's still going up. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.
This final note on the way out today, which I'll preface by noting that the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week was 6.48%, down a tad from a week earlier. That's from Fannie Mae. I mention it to get to this. The National Association of Realtors said today the heretofore moribund spring home buying season seems to have gotten a bit of a mid-season boost. Home sales in May up 3.2% from April.
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