Kelvin Davidson

So we had the New Zealand Activity Index from Stats New Zealand for December.

It was a 1.8% increase in that 12 months to December.

When you look across Q4 as a whole, the average increase was about 2.3%.

So across October, November, December, each result was actually pretty positive.

Now you can sort of do some fiddling behind the scenes and translate that into a quarterly GDP path for those official benchmark numbers.

What that implies is about a 0.6% lift in GDP in the fourth quarter.

So, you know, pretty decent result.

It would be a slowdown from what we had, barring revisions, it would be a slowdown from what we had in Q3, which was 1.1%.

But 0.6%, still pretty solid, you know, annualised pace, what, 2.5%-ish, something like that.

So not too bad.

Now, it also fits with some other indicators or other

predictions for q4 numbers the reserve bank in particular has that kiwi gdp indicator it's sitting at about 0.6 so yeah it looks like looks like we'll have a decent number for q4 gdp which will be out i'm not sure when about another month or something i guess kind of mid to late march

So, yeah, I think you look at that number and you say, you know, recovery's here.

It looks like we have two quarters of GDP increase in a row.

So that's, you know, a much more encouraging sign.

Still a bit of caution, as I say, but it does start to look a little bit better.

And then, yeah, net migration turning around as well.

So in the year to December, 12 months, adding it up over that 12-month period, rolling total about 14,200, just short of that in terms of net migration into the country in that 12-month period.

Still below the average is sort of 30,000, 31,000.

So we're still a fair bit below that.