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Kelvin Davidson

Kelvin Davidson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
938 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

interest rates are generally down but you know people starting to worry a little bit more now about small increases on some of those terms you know labor market which we'll talk about is not exactly sort of roaring away some economic indicators looking better others not quite so not quite so strong so yeah you know it could be that we we don't see a lot of growth in house prices for a few months yet whether it's the second half of the year or you know towards the tail end of the first half not not sure but yeah it does just feel like there's um you know maybe a little bit of

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

a little bit of a flat patch to keep working through, I guess.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So yeah, hopefully that wraps it up.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Not much more to be said.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

I guess people will just be thinking about where it goes next and that trade-off between lower interest rates, but maybe still a slight bit of economic caution out there.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

know watching the labor market seeing the unemployment rate go up in the fourth quarter so there's going to be yeah conflicting forces i mean we had that phrase last year it's it's maybe carried over into the first month of this year might carry on for a little bit a little bit longer yet and there's this wider point i guess we've we've been talking about in terms of um well you know it's not necessarily the worst thing if house prices are flat for a long period of time it's you know not so good if you're trying to be a seller or you want to see some capital gains on property your own but

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Good for buyers, of course.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So, yeah, I think this is just a market where buyers still have a window of opportunity, I suppose.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

And we're seeing it in our buyer classification data.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

First-time buyers still staying really strong.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So, yeah, good news story in amongst all of that.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Yeah, so we saw unemployment rate go up 5.3% to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of last year.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So, you know, I think in the end, any rise in the unemployment rate is not ideal.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

You know, we'd want to see it be going down.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So that's kind of, I think, the overall message here.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

It's not great, but...

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Yeah, when you split it down a little bit more, it was sort of a so-called good increase in the unemployment rate, if you can have that.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

And it comes down to a supply and demand argument, really.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So what we saw was that actually employment went up.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So there was job creation.