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I mean, they could change just simply because she's a new governor and kind of wants to make things look a bit different.
I'm not sure.
But yeah, the actual path for some of those key numbers that come in that spreadsheet, GDP, employment, house prices, CPI inflation and the official cash rate itself, they project all of that.
Yeah, I kind of wonder if that will stay pretty much the same.
it's probably more of a gut feel than anything else but I'll definitely be going straight to that spreadsheet to check it out in particular the OCR track I really just want to see if that's changed and by how much if it has changed and in what direction but yeah so I kind of I do wonder if the numbers themselves might stay pretty much unchanged and it's about
you know we'll all have to dig into the you know written commentary and the press um conference and just sort of go what word have they included you know the economists sort of arguing over you know choice of words what's in what's out so but it could be that it's actually
subtle change in direction through the through the language rather than necessarily the numbers i wonder if that's how it sort of comes out but yeah all to be revealed on um on wednesday anyway i mean the perhaps the the bigger picture for for people just the casual observer following all of this is is okay you could you could you know we'll all get excited about what's in the spreadsheet and what's in the report but
does it mean for mortgage rates you know i guess um the the people who have because we know that the next move whenever it happens so this is what the question is about we know the next move is going to be up so all of this discussion and intrigue i guess is about well when will that happen um it's not so much a question of will the next move be up it's about the timing
And if that's true, which I think it pretty much is, people, in terms of their mortgage rates, this behaviour we've seen lately towards shifting out for longer fixed rates, taking more fixed rates and taking them for longer terms, seems to be a pretty wise move, given that we know the next shift in the OCR is likely to be up at some stage, barring anything can change, of course.
um but just at this point it seems like that move will be upwards so those people have been taking longer term fixed rates and they've probably been making a fairly good move i would have thought um so yeah i mean how do i how do i summarize that it's for me it's it's look at the numbers they may not change very much but there's going to be a focus on
Yeah, so, I mean, it is a couple of months ago now, isn't it?
This is just another split of the Reserve Bank numbers.
They put out various cuts of them and they released them in a staggered way.
I think this is the last cut of December's numbers that we'll get.
But yeah, so it covers, as you say, it covers so-called new loans.
So it's when you're buying a house, when you're switching banks, and keep in mind that there was a whole wave of banks switching in December, as well as loan top-ups.
So I guess equity withdrawal is another way of,
thinking of that so it's those kind of so-called loan events um and yeah obviously we had a monetary policy statement at the end of november so we saw in november's data that uh 49 of new lending done in november was floating i guess people just wanted if they were settling alone they wanted to stay a bit flexible you know just wait and see what happened at that official cash rate decision
and and then you know decide what to do after that well we got that decision it was pretty clear signal of look we're done cutting um we might not be rising yet but at least we're kind of done cutting so then roll forward to december and all those people who were or you know the next batch of people coming through i guess setting up i'm not going to float i'm going to i'm going to fix for longer so 49 floating in november fell to 22 in december so really sharp fall away and that sort of share of lending on floating rates back to
kind of there's always loans going out on floating rates for whatever reason so a much more normal number 49 was i think a record high uh we're back down to 22 which was um back down to much more normal levels on the flip side um only 19 fixed for at least a year in november roll forward to december and that was up to 49 so it was pretty much a mirror image of each other everyone floated in november everyone fixed for at least a year and um in december so