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Kelvin Davidson

Kelvin Davidson

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
938 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

you obviously want the unemployment rate to be coming down and that's what i think probably does start to happen from here on you get more of that job creation um you know maybe that starts to outweigh any rise in the supply so you see the unemployment rate coming down but you know just for the moment there's still a bit of slack in the labor market wage growth still pretty flat so you know if you want from a certain if you've got a big debt or whatever well it probably does just suggest that

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

know maybe we've got some of the markets at least have got ahead of themselves and potentially and predicting those ocr increases to to come a long way forward and you know maybe it just pushes back on that a little bit where you know still spare capacity yes the economy is recovering but not exactly booming so you know maybe it just does just sort of push back the expected timing for those ocr increases a little bit um you know so that will that will be a good thing definitely for people who are who are you know struggling against big debt levels for example so

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Yeah, just two really quick things.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

I think, now this might have been reversed afterwards, but I think in the aftermath of those labour market numbers, sort of wholesale swap rates came down a little bit.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So, you know, the markets interpreted those numbers as sort of a little bit more downbeat than what they're anticipating.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So those reactionary swap rates, I think, did fall a bit.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Now, as I say, it might have happened for a completely different reason and it might have gone back up again.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

I haven't looked.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

But yeah, I think if that's a signal of what people are thinking, then it does sort of sway back the other way towards, you know, let's not necessarily look for OCR increases anytime soon.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

And secondly, I guess just noting that it's the new governor's first monetary policy statement on next Wednesday, 18th.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So, yeah, people will be, I mean, we always look at it closely, but I guess, you know, there'll be an even bigger focus on it.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

You know, not only what the forecasts say, but kind of maybe does the style change, you know, does the communication style change?

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Are there new bits of communication in there?

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

And there's been some speculation that at some point they might actually release the voting record of how people actually individually voted in these meetings rather than just a,

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

sort of you know it was unanimous or four to one or whatever actually say what people did so you know whether whether that comes through um we'll have to wait and see but um yeah people are watching closely because it just says that her first monetary policy statement and you know it's a biggie i mean there's there's been um been some you know some different things have happened over the kind of three months since since the last one so um yeah she'll she'll be an interesting one on the 18th

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Yeah, quite a busy week.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Lots of different little chunks of reports to either finish or start or progress.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

So there's a lot going on there.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

Yeah, pain and gain.

The NZ Property Market Podcast
A 'good' increase in unemployment?

I mean, the numbers look relatively flat.