Podcast Appearances
actually thought you know what there might be a job available for me now i'll come back into the labor force and i'll start working so you know that you can view that a bit more positively yeah we had some jobs growth um as well as that some people some other people who were previously out of the labor force felt like they could probably find a job too so they came back in so it's just that in these numbers uh yes demand for workers went up but it's just supply went up a little bit more through that working age population effect and the labor force participation effect so
Yeah, as I say, it's not ideal.
You want the unemployment rate to be going down.
But if you do have a sort of glass half full perspective, this is, like I say, a sort of so-called good rise in the unemployment rate because you had people feeling like they could actually get a job again.
So, yeah, you know, I think you probably want to view it in a slightly balanced way.
It would be better if it was coming down, but it wasn't perhaps the worst outcome either.
And I think, yeah, when you look at other measures, underutilization, you look at wage growth, I mean, wage growth is still pretty flat.
So, yeah, I think...
you obviously want the unemployment rate to be coming down and that's what i think probably does start to happen from here on you get more of that job creation um you know maybe that starts to outweigh any rise in the supply so you see the unemployment rate coming down but you know just for the moment there's still a bit of slack in the labor market wage growth still pretty flat so you know if you want from a certain if you've got a big debt or whatever well it probably does just suggest that
know maybe we've got some of the markets at least have got ahead of themselves and potentially and predicting those ocr increases to to come a long way forward and you know maybe it just pushes back on that a little bit where you know still spare capacity yes the economy is recovering but not exactly booming so you know maybe it just does just sort of push back the expected timing for those ocr increases a little bit um you know so that will that will be a good thing definitely for people who are who are you know struggling against big debt levels for example so
Yeah, just two really quick things.
I think, now this might have been reversed afterwards, but I think in the aftermath of those labour market numbers, sort of wholesale swap rates came down a little bit.
So, you know, the markets interpreted those numbers as sort of a little bit more downbeat than what they're anticipating.
So those reactionary swap rates, I think, did fall a bit.
Now, as I say, it might have happened for a completely different reason and it might have gone back up again.
I haven't looked.
But yeah, I think if that's a signal of what people are thinking, then it does sort of sway back the other way towards, you know, let's not necessarily look for OCR increases anytime soon.
And secondly, I guess just noting that it's the new governor's first monetary policy statement on next Wednesday, 18th.
So, yeah, people will be, I mean, we always look at it closely, but I guess, you know, there'll be an even bigger focus on it.
You know, not only what the forecasts say, but kind of maybe does the style change, you know, does the communication style change?