Podcast Appearances
Net migration, yep, it's maybe turning around.
It's subject to revisions.
It's the net result of two big numbers.
you know, inwards migration, outwards migration.
It doesn't take much of a swing in those two big numbers to really change the net figure significantly.
So, you know, you always take these figures with a little bit of caution.
But, yep, looks like maybe that net migration cycle is turning around.
We're up to sort of around 10,700 in the past 12 months.
possibly barring you know significant revisions um the the bottom point for that looked to be in august at about 9 000 so we might be we might be slightly past that trough now i mean net migration would be a bit of double-edged sword i guess it's you know it's adding more workers to your labor force that that sort of helps um but then there is sort of extra housing demand so there's you know there's always two sides to it um
And keep in mind, net migration is still pretty low.
The peak was way back at 135,000, something like that.
So it has come down a long way and still below average too.
If you look at the long run average from net migration, it's about 31,000, somewhere around there.
So even if it does turn around, it's this whole capacity argument.
Keep this in mind throughout our whole chat about inflation, the economy in general.
um yes we might be seeing net migration pick up but it's still way below where it would where it would normally be so like with a lot of these indicators i guess don't confuse growth with with the level you know yes we might be starting to see some growth come through but starting from a for a pretty soft position so it takes a while for the the number of things to to build up to a more level more normal level again even if you've got growth
So, yeah, but either way, you know, that's good news.
The trade-off is a bit of inflation, but we've got what looks to be now a much more solid economic recovery coming through.
So, yeah, that's encouraging.
staunch numbers there from first home buyers which probably took a lot of the headlines for the chart pack last week yeah sure did yeah i mean it's just i found myself saying the journalist tail end of last week sort of it's a bit easy to get complacent or a bit sort of blasé about the first home buyers numbers are 28 29 you know it's just it's just more of the same but actually