Kevin Roose

So I think we are right to be paying attention to this, and I think it's irresponsible to sugarcoat what's happening.

Yeah, it is.

And I think, you know, I don't blame people for questioning last year whether we were in an AI bubble.

I think most people up to that point had only used things like ChatGPT, which are, you know, very capable on their own.

But I can understand why people would look at that and then look at the billions of dollars being spent on data centers and infrastructure and think like, okay, isn't this a little bit much?

But the bet that these AI companies were making is that you could actually turn this stuff into useful tools that would be able to do real valuable work in the economy.

And I think we are starting to see that bet pay off.

So I'll answer the first part, which is that I don't know how likely it is.

I have intuitions and guesses, but no one really knows how this is going to go.

It could be that there's a short-term spike in the demand for software engineers because everyone's building new kinds of software and they need people to manage it all.

Mm-hmm.

And it could be that these tools just never wipe out millions of jobs en masse.

But the AI companies and the people who run the companies are increasingly worried about this.

So Dario Amadei, who's the CEO of Anthropic, which makes Claude, has warned that he believes that AI could potentially eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within the next five years.

Right.

Wow.

So that could be wildly off.

But even if it were partially true, even if it were 10% or 20%, that would still be a massive change to the labor market and to the lives of millions of people.

Yeah, I agree.

And I myself feel very uncertain about this.