Kim Kahn
speaker
3,036 appearances
92 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2025
last heard 4d ago
Kim Kahn’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 92 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 23.
Appearances
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Prunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.
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Hello, today is Sunday, September 13th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.
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This week is all about the Fed rate decision on Wednesday.
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Will this be the start of a new tightening cycle, a one-off hike to combat energy prices, or a defiant pause?
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Normally, we'd look at futures and swaps to see what traders are expecting.
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In this case, it's an 87% chance the FOMC hikes by a quarter point after hot August Core CPI and payrolls numbers.
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But this week investors need to consider whether traders are sending a message more than making a prediction.
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With 10-year treasury yields close to settling at 5% for the first time since the financial crisis.
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The bond market is sending the Fed a clear signal that sticky inflation needs to be tackled.
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Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh has agreed that getting inflation back to the two percent target is a top priority, but he's also argued that higher longer term yields, rather than a Fed funds rate hike, could be the way to achieve that.
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Walsh has also cautioned against Fed moves based on one or two data points.
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And there's a White House demand for lower rates that may come into play in Warsh's calculation.
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President Trump has threatened to cut off all trade with major partners if the Fed doesn't cut.
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Wells Fargo economists say the run of inflation data meets the low bar to hike that Walsh laid out in his speech at Jackson Hole.
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We are deeply skeptical of tighter monetary policy as an antidote to energy-induced inflation, but right now it's the Fed's world and we're just living in it, they said.
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Whether it hikes or holds, the Fed will face accusations of favoring one side ahead of the midterms.
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But essay analyst Samuel Smith says last week's ECB hike gives the FOMC cover to raise.
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Expects a quarter point hike, but at most it will likely only hike one more time, as there are too many countervailing factors against a fresh, aggressive rate hiking cycle.
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Wellswager economists say two is a good starting point for hikes, but this could just as easily be one and done if inflation cooperates.
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To be clear, one and done is so silly to us, it has no practical impact on anything, inflation or growth, but Warsha's calculus could be exactly that.
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