Chapter 1: What happened in Iran and how will it affect oil prices?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.
Hello, today is Sunday, March 1st, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. The U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Saturday. killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other leadership figures. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Sunday the most intense offensive operation ever is coming to target Israel and U.S. Mideast bases.
President Donald Trump responded with a warning of overwhelming retaliation if Iran strikes U.S. forces, but also told The Atlantic that he would be talking to Iran's new leadership. With markets closed over the weekend, money is likely to be hectic on Wall Street, and oil is the first place traders will look.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of the February jobs report?
Polymarket has a 93% chance of WTI crude moving higher on Monday, not surprisingly, and a 77% chance that it will be above $80 per barrel at the end of March. That's up 27 percentage points from before the weekend, and would be a gain of more than 19% from where it sits now at $67.02. There's also a 50% chance that crude is above $90 a barrel on the final trading day of the month.
Separately, OPEC Plus has agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April. That's larger than the 1.37 monthly boost announced late last year, but small relative to potential disruptions in the Middle East. Crypto markets also offered a weekend tell. Tokens backed by physical gold implied that gold would open higher, with prices up roughly 1-2% versus Friday's close.
And regional markets reacted quickly. Saudi Arabia dropped 2.2%, its steepest one-day fall since April, wiping out its gains for the year. Losses were tempered by a rise in Saudi Aramco, though.
Chapter 3: How is Berkshire Hathaway adapting under new leadership?
And Egypt's main stock gauge fell 2.5%. Looking to the week ahead, the February jobs report is due Friday. Economists expect non-farm payrolls rose by about 60,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
Wells Fargo economists say that while some stabilization in demand for workers is evident, a range of indicators, including jolts and the consumers' perceptions of job availability, still point to a gradual loosening in the labor market conditions rather than renewed acceleration in hiring. The earnings calendar is thinning out, with 10 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.
Highlights include CrowdStrike on Tuesday, Broadcom on Wednesday, and Costco and Alibaba on Thursday. Also in the news this weekend, OpenAI said it does not believe that rival Anthropic should be designated a supply chain risk by the U.S. government, even as OpenAI announced its own agreement with the Pentagon to deploy advanced AI systems in classified environments.
On Friday, President Trump said government agencies should not use Anthropic amid a standoff between the company and the DoD over surveillance and the use of AI in fully autonomous weapons. And Berkshire Hathaway reported another surge in its cash pile in Q4, even as operating earnings fell amid insurance headwinds in what was Warren Buffett's last quarter as CEO.
Chapter 4: What trends are emerging in the cryptocurrency market?
In his first annual letter to shareholders, CEO Greg Abel signaled a more cautious posture. reining in growth in insurance underwriting to protect margins, and holding back on utility expansion to meet AI-related power demand unless returns are compelling for shareholders. And for income investors, Allstate goes ex-dividend Monday, paying out on April 1st, yes, April Fool's Day.
LOM Research goes ex-dividend Wednesday, with an April 8th payout date. And on Thursday, Cigna and Qualcomm go ex-dividend, Cigna pays out on March 19th, and Qualcomm pays out on March 26th. Thanks for listening, and happy St. David's Day.
That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB.
Chapter 5: What are the upcoming dividends to watch this week?
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