Konstantin Kisin

But it's just a reality that the tech tree has AI in it and it's going to happen.

the societal implications of that are very very significant and i would argue scary yeah yeah yeah i i think i mean it's even scarier than that so now we're just talking about the small fraction of jobs that ai is already approaching but remember the promise of this technology is all jobs we're trying to do anything a human being can do and so there will be certain kinds of things where

for a small fraction of things, people just really intrinsically prefer a human.

I think people are really overrating the amount of things for this will be the case.

I think people might have had the sense that I really want an Uber driver to be a human, and then people use a Waymo for the first time.

I would pay more for this experience because it's the machine just like I can get in and things work.

Putting that aside, so the reason it's a worse problem than this, if you look through the last couple centuries of history,

There's been this remarkable economic fact that two-thirds of national income, two-thirds of GDP, basically, gets paid out to wages, and one-third gets paid out to capital.

So getting paid out to capital means like rent on land, or if you own factories, you know, getting the profits from those factories, basically.

And the rest is getting paid out.

Most of income that is earned in a country is getting paid out to people doing work.

And the reason this has been the case is that in the economy, labor and capital are complements.

So if you just accumulated a bunch of capital, if you had a bunch of factories, but there was nobody working on it, then that would increase the demand for labor.

And you'd want to pay laborers a bunch of money to fill those factories.

This goes away when capital can do labor, when a data center, which is capital, can also do labor, or a robot factory can also build labor.

And so all the income goes to the capital holders.

And in fact, it doesn't just go to capital per se, it doesn't just go to

I mean, it goes to capital holders, but it disproportionately goes to the parts of capital that are most exposed to AI.

So the purchase that most Americans have to capital is through their homes.

A house is maybe the... If you're trying to design an instrument that is going to be the least implicated in the AI takeoff, it would be a random plot of land