Kos Samaras

But they didn't have a massive existential threat on the left flank.

It was a minimal threat and it was very geographically contained.

The flip side for the coalition is that that is not a luxury they have.

And so...

by embarking on this strategy of trying to outperform Pauline Hanson on immigration.

The other thing they've done is, of course, you have in excess of 2 million Australians who are permanent residents.

You're going to now encourage hundreds of thousands of them to become citizens and enrol to vote out of fear.

Yes, yes.

So unless something changes, what we're predicting is One Nation will win the bulk of the electorates outside the large cities.

The coalition will be cut down to only a handful of seats, probably as high as I think the high teens, as low as single digits.

I do put a cap on it.

It can change because we are, as I touched on, living for a quite transformative period, but that's the world we're looking at.

Anything from somewhere in the mid-40s.

to about 60 seats is what we're looking at at the moment, and predominantly in the regions and some in the outer suburbs of our large cities.

Largely coming off the coalition, but also a bit off Labor.

And what about Barnaby, the great white hope?

How's he looking?

He doesn't need to stand for the Senate.

He can win New England quite comfortably.

I would expect that the One Nation primary vote in New England would be close to almost allowing him to win on primary votes alone.