Is the budget backlash hurting Labor?
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What is the impact of the federal budget on Labor's polling?
I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to 7am. The federal budget has been hit by a fierce campaign from large sections of the media and a handful of high-profile millennial entrepreneurs. But so far, Labor's polling has remained relatively unscathed. But that doesn't mean voters are happy. People might not be shifting their votes over this budget, but many still feel there's nothing in it for them right now. For the Coalition, that should be an opening. Instead, One Nation's turning that frustration into real momentum. Today, Director of Strategy and Campaigns at Redbridge Group, Cos Samaras. On Labor's budget woes, the Coalition's failure to capitalise, and the populist right's growing hold on Australian politics.
It's Saturday, May 23rd. Cos, good to see you again. This week, the Treasurer has been doing a bit of a media blitz defending the government's latest budget. They've been facing some pretty big attack campaigns from the opposition and from some corners of the media.
This is a government that's just run out of money and it's coming after Australians' money and it's doing that through tax hikes, not just these tax hikes. But this is a budget built on lies. It's built on higher deficits, more debt, lower living standards and fewer homes, which
So how much of a hit has the government actually taken in the polls?
Well, right now I would say zero because what we do know about how long it takes for any political news to actually be absorbed by enough people in the country for it to be statistically viable as a captured audience. It takes a while for that to actually happen. And so really the only people I think would have tuned into the budget are those who are negatively impacted. So clearly people with shares, people who are negative gearing, who may have checked it out to see whether it's grandfathered or not. But by and large, based on a lot of the qualitative research we've done over the last week or so, there's been very little cut through. except for amongst younger Australians who think it didn't go far enough in recalibrating the iniquity.
What did you make of the news poll that said 52% of the people feel the budget will leave them worse off?
The latest polls show the PM's popularity has nosedived. Voters are threatening to walk away from the major parties and barely anyone thinks they're better off.
Do you think that's accurate? And if so, where's that sentiment coming from?
That sentiment is coming from a general sentiment across the country that the country is heading in the wrong direction. And that's really a manifestation, not necessarily whether government is performing well or not.
How are younger Australians reacting to the budget?
It's just that they think the world around them is in disarray. The economy is struggling. There's a fuel crisis. There's an inflationary crisis. They've been buffeted by one crisis after another. They've not seen daylight since the pandemic. The mental state of the Australian populace is probably rock bottom and it really is not always about politics.
What have you made of the overall reaction from the media in the days and now weeks after the budget?
Look, I'd say it's a campaign that I've seen run many times. It works for a particular group of Australians, much older Australians. But it's completely tone deaf when it comes to the sentiment that we are seeing expressed by younger Australians. And that is most younger Australians think that this system, the tax system, is not engineered for them, full stop. And most of these younger Australians are salaried. Contrary to the narrative that has been put out to the last week, they're not all tech bros. They don't have shares. Millennial entrepreneurs. That's right. The mass majority of them belong to that renter cohort, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, and now increasingly in cities like Brisbane and Perth and Adelaide.
They are overwhelmingly people with no political power, no asset power, no financial power. And they want someone to go into bat for them. And hence, so far, I think that the Labor government took that positive step forward.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the impact of the federal budget on Labor's polling?
0:01–2:40
2
How are younger Australians reacting to the budget?
2:40–4:38
3
What is the Coalition's strategy following the budget backlash?
4:38–7:51
4
How does One Nation capitalize on voter dissatisfaction?
7:51–10:05
5
What factors contribute to the rise of populist politics in Australia?
10:05–12:09
6
How does the Labor government plan to address voter concerns?
12:09–13:09
Speakers
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