Krystal Ball

So we have a memo of understanding for a 60-day negotiation period, a lot that could go wrong with regard to this potential deal with Iran, which we've covered other places in the show.

But we wanted to take a look at the economic fallout and assuming the best case scenario, assuming the best case scenario,

Assuming this all goes swimmingly and the Strait of Hormuz opens imminently, what is likely to be the continued lag effects?

How quickly can we expect oil markets in particular to get back to normal?

So the New York Times has an interesting write-up here.

They say, deal to reopen Hormuz kicks off a long effort to ease the energy crisis.

Because remember, we've had months at this point of things not being normal.

And if there's one thing we learned both from Ukraine and from the COVID shock,

It can take a while before the kinks get worked down of the system till things truly revert to the way that they were before.

There's also some indications they may never completely return to the way that they were before.

Let me read you a little bit from this piece.

They say the long awaited deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz brought quick relief to the oil market, sending prices to their lowest level since early March.

Getting substantial amounts of oil and gas flowing, however, will take much longer.

It can take weeks or months, even in the best of times, to get oil and gas from wells in the Persian Gulf to buyers in China or Japan.

The first big test for whether the deal will work is whether it gives shipping companies enough confidence to send their vessels through the strait.

If they do...

tankers that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf will be able to bring much-needed fuel to buyers around the world.

What comes after that will depend a lot on how long companies think the reopening will last.

The U.S.

and Iran agreed to a 60-day truce during which they would try to breach a broader agreement on Iran's nuclear weapons program and U.S.