Krystal Ball

We are at a fork in the road and Trump is choosing the acquiescence track.

And how you'll know then that the escalation model is ending is when Trump withdraws the forces.

That's how you know that you're actually, it's the end.

And that just hasn't happened yet.

Now, maybe he'll withdraw forces next week.

Maybe he'll withdraw forces in 30 days.

I don't know.

But that's not, I'm not predicting the timing.

I'm predicting the trajectory and the stages.

And that's really the, and I'm sorry, but this is the 20 years of the moment.

This is the only way out of this is either you go forward with more escalation or you withdraw your forces and you accept its acquiescence accommodation

capitulation to a stronger Iran.

There's no, like, graceful way out where we just pretend this didn't happen and suddenly we're back to February 27.

We're not.

The status quo of February 27 is not coming back.

There's two status quos in front of us, more war or Iran is a stronger power for many years to come.

Professor Pape, thank you so much for reacting to breaking news this morning.

We really, really appreciate you being here.

Well, and thank you for having me and for allowing me to explain what's essentially a model in all these stages.

here, which is really quite something.