Larry McDonald

And I'll never forget, he said, Larry, always beware of the three L's.

I said, Charlie, what are the three L's?

He said, liquor, ladies, and leverage.

And then I was laughing and he was like, he, and he taught, just talked about the cycles of like, about, and like, he, he was almost talking about the future around like private credit was just, it's just another version of other instances.

And then he said, there's only, there's only one thing worse than three L's.

It's the three M's.

I said, Charlie, what are the three M's?

He said, mark to market, mark to model, and mark to myth.

And the point is, is that those three L's and those three M's go back 50, 60, 70 years, and history just repeats.

It's just a different flavor every time.

Well, I would say right now, if you think about trade,

Two-year treasuries have gone this vicious sell-off.

So interest rates are up on two-year treasuries.

Bond prices are down.

And I'm seeing some of the most sophisticated institutional clients buying twos here because of this private credit situation.

So Trump tries to do the off-ramp.

um this time the off-ramp is coming into a private credit crisis it's coming into a crisis where oil's made this big move crunch the consumer and then ai is disrupting lots of jobs so that's like you said that brings on recession risk goldman just went from like 10 15 to 30 percent in terms of recession probability

No, you're 100% right.

But the direction of travel is still important.

Yeah, when you're in that little zone, yeah, there's a zone there that you're talking about, you're 100% right.