Larry McDonald

Yeah.

But I think that the street is caught off guard on the private credit thing.

And so the bottom line is, yeah, the next recession, they go all in.

They cut rates aggressively.

That's why if you buy twos here, if you buy a two-year bond here, a three-year, no, a three-year treasury, you're getting close to four and a half percent.

But if the bond...

If interest rates go down, the bond prices could go up.

So you can actually make 10% in short-term treasuries now, if we go into a hard landing.

So that's one thing I'm seeing people do.

But then to your point is the next time we go in, the debt to GDP is, when Lehman went down, debt to GDP was 75, 80%, right?

Now we're going in 120, 125%.

So what that means is when they do the QE lever this time,

uh the hits of the dollar is worse that's why that's why i think we're coming into this golden age of hard assets or companies that control assets your energy sector your industrials your materials are probably going to go from 12 to 14 percent of the s p to maybe 30 of the s p of the next five years because of what you just just talked about

The job loss thing on AI, people are starting to talk about, but you could have hundreds of thousands of job losses later on in the year from disruption that comes in from, just look at companies like Expedia.

There's a lot of companies that could really get wiped out.

um then i think that central banks uh ownership of different assets right so ownership of treasuries uh the uk i think is a big situation right uh nigel farage is probably given the next prime minister but they're like a much dirtier shirt than the united states so they've already had that liz trust moment all that means is

The situation with natural gas and LNG in Europe is much worse.

So it's causing much more inflation.

So the UK could have like a real sovereign crisis because they're going into recession.

They're really levered.