Leah Litman

So you're right, we can't count on the federal courts to always be there.

We have to take a belt and suspenders approach to thinking about our rights.

As we were talking about, Congress should have codified protections for Roe, not just relied on the idea that the Supreme Court was always going to stick to precedent.

And we also need to think about what these institutions should look like.

in the post-Trump world.

Because again, thinking proactively, we should think about how can we safeguard our institutions and harden our democracy so that we don't slip back into this when we finally pull ourselves

I think the best case scenario is the justices say the state bans on trans girls and trans women participating in sports don't violate Title IX, the federal law that prohibits sex discrimination in educational institutions and services.

That's the absolute best case scenario.

From there, it only gets worse.

It's possible they will also say these bans don't violate the Constitution's Equal Protection Clause.

That would be worse because it would foreclose another potential claim that could be used to challenge these bans.

The lower court in this case suggested...

They needed more evidence in order to weigh that claim.

And so the idea that the Supreme Court will just go ahead and resolve it after the lower court said we need more evidence, right, should be some indication of how aggressive, right, they are inclined to be with respect to trans rights.

And then still worse is the possibility –

They're not going to do it in this case, but there's a possibility that some justice floats the possibility that Title IX itself forbids the participation of trans girls and trans women in women's sports.

And so then it's not just that you can't challenge states where states have laws that ban trans girls and trans women.

It's also that states won't be allowed to include trans girls and trans women.

So that's the range of possibilities.

Rooting for the first one, real hard.