Liam Donovan

control over the party, I certainly think that that shapes his decision making.

best barometer we have is presidential approval, generic ballot, and those indicators are rough.

I mean, it's, you know, Donald Trump has 58% disapproval, I think, in RCP average.

It was higher in November of 2025, and that was bad enough.

And so certainly, like,

That's a that's a dipstick.

I also think that the thing that's difficult to read about the elections that have happened in the meantime, they've obviously been very favorable for Democrats.

Like there's a built in asymmetry based on the makeup of the coalitions now where Democrats

Every Democrat is crawling over broken glass to go vote for Democrats for dog catcher if it means sticking it to to Donald Trump.

You know, generic ballots, another one where I think maybe that's that might be the interesting delta there is Democrats only get 48 percent on the generic ballot, which is, of course, a good number.

It's significantly higher than what Republicans have.

But there's a delta there of about 10 percent of voters there.

who say they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing, but they're not yet willing to say, I would prefer a generic Democrat in the vote for Congress.

And so I think that's the big question over the next six months is, what's more likely?

Does Donald Trump's approval rebound such that those people go and vote Republican?

Do they stay home altogether or do they just say this is I'm not voting for this?

I want to check and end up saying, yes, I will vote for that.

I mean, I think the factor that.

2022 kind of rhymes with this.

That was the first time we were in this particular map.