Does Trump Want to Lose the Midterms?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hi, I'm Solana Pine. I'm the director of video at The New York Times. For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments, videos by Times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand what's going on. Now we're bringing those videos to you in the Watch tab in The New York Times app. It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing. All the videos there are free for anyone to watch. You don't have to be a subscriber. Download The New York Times app to start watching.
My pet theory right now is that Donald Trump is not trying to win the midterm election. I'm not saying he's trying to lose it exactly. I just don't think he cares. What he cares about is controlling the Republican Party. The Republican Party is his power base. The Republican Party is his protection. The Republican Party is how he can wield power far into the future, long after his presidency. And so control of it is what he's prioritizing. I call this a theory, but it's more like a hypothesis. It is predictions. You can test them. Trump is more unpopular at this point in his second term than basically any of his modern predecessors. The midterm elections, they're less than six months away. He could easily lose the House.
He could actually lose the Senate now. So what is he doing? Well, if he wanted to win the midterms, he'd be moving to the center. He'd be focusing on the things that Americans are angry about, disappointed in him about. He'd be supporting the strongest Republicans in contested races and doing everything he possibly could to bolster Republicans in vulnerable states and districts. He's not doing even a little bit of that. Not even a bit. Instead, he's doing the opposite. He's announcing a $1.8 billion slush fund that appears designed to pay out to January 6th rioters. He endorsed the scandal-plagued, very controversial Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas, giving Democrats a real chance at winning a seat that should be way out of reach for them.
He helped primary Thomas Massey, the House Republican, who released the Epstein files. He defeated Bill Cassidy, the Louisiana senator, who voted to impeach him in his first term. He is attacking Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the very, very, very few House Republicans representing a district that voted for Kamala Harris. He's threatening to escalate the Iran war. And when asked whether he is worried about Americans' finances, about their pocketbooks, about their cost of living, here is what he said.
Mr. President, to what extent are American financial situations motivating you to make a deal? Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about American's financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all.
What a gift to Democratic ad makers that clip is. Donald Trump cares about control of his party. not of Congress. If he can win the election in a way that tightens his control of Republicans, like through redistricting, he'll take that. If not, he's busy. He's got other things to do. I'm not saying he wants Democrats to win, but I don't think he minds it if they do. A Democratic Congress gives him an enemy to fight. I think he gets a little lost without an enemy. It frees him from the tedious work of trying to pass legislation. It puts him back in the place he's most comfortable, which is not wielding power. It's claiming persecution. What Trump would mind, what he does fear, is a Republican party with a spine.
He fears a Republican party where members of Congress begin to participate in the investigations of his scandals, where they abandoned him as his fortunes fall. And so he's made his choice. He is showing them that to oppose him, even from the right, is to light your political future on fire.
Why doesn't Trump seem to care about winning the midterms?
The point isn't just to defeat Massey or Cassidy or Cornyn or any of them. It's to scare every Republican left in Congress. To make sure they know that Donald Trump would gladly destroy each and every one of them personally.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–4:26
2
Why doesn't Trump seem to care about winning the midterms?
4:26–9:18
3
What is Trump's strategy regarding the Republican Party?
9:18–11:43
4
What are the implications of Trump's endorsements in Republican primaries?
11:43–12:27
5
What are the potential paths for Democratic victories in the upcoming elections?
12:27–26:51
6
How does Trump's unpopularity affect Republican candidates?
26:51–43:44
7
How do the approval ratings impact the political landscape?
43:44–1:15:58