Lisa Lerer

They see an opening to run against Paxton for his own scandals, but also tie Paxton to the president, who is becoming more and more unpopular and losing support among the very voters who boosted him to victory in 2024.

He's a seminary student.

He's trying to really imbibe his message with sort of Christian faith, which is important in a state like Texas where evangelical voters hold quite a large amount of political sway.

But of course, Tallarico also carries what Republicans believe are a fair amount of liabilities.

Republicans believe that they can cast Talrico as out of step with Texas voters and really far to the left.

They've spent weeks bringing back up his history of comments as a Texas state legislature, where he's talking about his support for abortion rights, offering support for transgender rights, saying things like God is non-binary.

And they're bringing those comments up to try to paint a picture of someone who, as they say, is, quote, a woke weirdo.

Look, no matter how strong a candidate the Democratic nominee is, this is still Texas, which is one of the reddest states in the country.

And it's going to be an uphill battle for any Democrat.

Well, I think it's helpful to get a sense of the overall landscape now that we're less than six months out from these midterms.

And I think it's helpful to start with Republicans, because really, when you look at these races, it's not a question of whether these midterms will be bad for Republicans.

It's a question of how bad they will be.

Levels of badness.

And that is because the president is deeply unpopular.

He's waging a war that is deeply unpopular.

And on economic issues, which was really a central reason why voters elected the Trump administration, we have no indication that voters feel better about the cost of living of basic goods.

In fact, there's tons of economic data that shows they feel worse about things like housing and groceries and gas.

That's for the general election.

Before we get to that point, how the general election dynamics shake out and the degree of badness will be shaped by what happens in these primaries that we're now about to enter the heaviest period of.

That's exactly right.