Chapter 1: What recent setbacks did President Trump face?
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Over the past few days, President Trump has endured major setbacks at the ballot box, where Republicans lost races across the country, at the Supreme Court, which appears poised to strike down his tariffs, and in Congress, whose refusal to end the government shutdown will result in thousands of canceled airline flights beginning on Friday.
Today, I try to make sense of all of that with three of my colleagues, national political correspondent Lisa Lair, White House correspondent Tyler Pager, and congressional editor Julie Davis. It's Friday, November 7th. So shall we get started?
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Chapter 2: How did the elections impact the Republican Party?
Yeah.
Okay. Lisa Lair. Hi. Welcome back to The Roundtable. Julie Davis, good to see you.
Great to be here.
Tyler Pager, always a pleasure. Thanks for having me. I want to start this conversation with you all with a very simple question for the three of you.
Chapter 3: What was the Supreme Court's stance on Trump's tariffs?
Has this been the worst week for President Trump in the second term?
I think there's a good case to make, yes, because voters actually weighed in on how he was doing. And I think we've seen a lot of polling, but it's different when people actually go to the ballot box and register their feelings and their feelings were overwhelmingly opposed to the broader Republican Party at this point.
And up until this week, President Trump has had remarkable success pushing forward on a number of fronts. Just politically, as Tyler was saying, he hasn't had much in the way of obstacles in front of him. And we really saw that pivot a lot this week on a lot of different fronts. So I think it was a bit of a wake-up call.
You've been nodding, Lisa.
Yeah, I think the president learned and perhaps the country learned that Democrats can, in fact, still win elections. This was a party that was pretty demoralized, and they got a huge boost of momentum and energy this past week and showed, I think, the White House that there is still an opposition party.
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Chapter 4: How is the government shutdown affecting air travel?
So it feels like the three tentpoles of this not great week for the president is obviously, number one, Tuesday's election. Perhaps number two, the Supreme Court's profound skepticism of the president's tariff regime. And third, what I would describe as the metastasizing impacts of the government shutdown, now officially the longest in American history.
Let's dive deeper into the first one, which is Tuesday night's election. We've now had several days, Lisa, to sift through the data in the aftermath of this election. And what we've discovered is just how meaningfully the victorious Democratic winners, especially the governors, won over Trump voters, voters who voted for Trump just a year ago and made him president.
Yeah. And so one statistic that really stood out to me in this whole thing is that Mikey Sherrill, the Democratic nominee who now is Democratic governor-elect of New Jersey, got more than 300,000 more votes than the Democratic nominee did in the last off-year election like this, which was 2021.
So not only did she mobilize Democrats, she also got voters who were not previously voting for Democrats, people who voted for President Trump.
Chapter 5: What are the implications of the Democrats' election victories?
And in particular, there, we're looking at Black and Latino voters. Trump made some real inroads in those communities in 2024. And what we saw in these elections is some of those voters came back to Democrats that Trump was, in fact, like renting. He didn't own those voters. It's not a permanent coalition anymore.
And for the White House, that's a big blow because that means that people are changing their minds about Trump in a negative way, that they were excited about the president, they voted for him, and now they're coming to the polls and saying, well, this isn't really working for us. We're voting Democrat.
Right. And just to be very specific, and here I'm going to crib from our colleague Nate Cohn, he found that Hispanic voters in New Jersey, where Mikey Sherrill is now governor-elect, were That group of voters really swung from Trump to Sheryl.
Chapter 6: How are economic issues influencing voter sentiment?
And let me give you the number. Exit polls found that Sheryl won 18% of Trump's Hispanic support in New Jersey. That's a pretty big number, wouldn't you say, Tyler?
Yeah. I mean, I think one of the things that Democrats are excited about is that they were able to win over these voters that were a long part of their base and had been slipping away. These coalitions that parties have relied on for decades are just way more movable than I think they had been. Right.
Which gives both parties opportunities, but also has warning signs for both parties who were relying on voters to turn out and support them and are not reliably doing so in the same ways.
And I think what they want on the Democrats is really important, perhaps the most important thing.
Say more about that.
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Chapter 7: What strategies are being discussed to end the government shutdown?
Well, all three of the candidates in really the major races here. So governor of New Jersey, governor of Virginia and mayor of New York City, which captured outside attention as it is want to do, ran on really these messages that were. So focused on cost of living and affordability, like this was the my rent, housing, electricity, grocery, health care costs are all too damn high election.
And they did that successfully. The reason why that is so unnerving for Republicans is traditionally economics have been a very strong point for the president. people have thought that he would do a better job handling the economy than the Democrats.
And we've really seen that edge erode to the point where Democrats were able to run a very successful campaign, almost exclusively focused on those issues, along with a heavy dose of, you know, opposition to the president, who's long been probably the best motivator for Democrats in the country.
And to your point, I had a conversation just before the election with Steve Bannon, one of President Trump's longtime advisers, who was very concerned about the president's hyper-focus on foreign policy. He's meeting with foreign leaders multiple times a week.
Chapter 8: What does the future hold for Trump's administration after this week?
He's done a lot of global travel. He has not been traveling at all really domestically outside his homes in Florida and New Jersey. And some of the president's longtime advisors are saying you need to get back to focusing on the American people.
Well, why did the president take, and this is for all of you, why did the president take his eye off of the economy? It's not exactly news to him, based on his presidential election victory a year ago, that he won because of Americans' economic insecurities and their belief that he was going to make life more affordable.
Well, but I think that he has focused on the economy in a lot of ways. We've talked about how he really leaned into tariffs and imposing tariffs on various countries, but he kept on making the case that that was going to help Americans and help consumers and help manufacturing in this country.
You look at the big tax cut bill that he spent a lot of political capital and a lot of time pushing through Congress. Earlier this year, that was supposedly all about the economy. I think the problem has been that in doing all of those things, he has really seen a blowback. Some of the tariffs have had negative effects on people in the United States. Same thing on the tax bill.
In order to pay for that bill, they imposed massive Medicaid cuts. They cut... nutritional benefits for Americans. And that was a calculated gamble that a tax cut was going to be politically positive for them. But in the end, that did not help a big portion of his coalition. So I don't think it's that he hasn't been focused at all on the economy.
It's just some of the impacts of what he has chosen to do are now just starting to be felt.
And Michael, just to add on to that, it's very reminiscent in some ways of Joe Biden's presidency, because Joe Biden passed all this legislation and promised that the economy was going to get better, but said that it would take time. A lot of what Trump has done, he said, is in service of the economy.
The tariffs, as Julie said, the tax cut, trying to take stake of companies, saying he's bringing in all this business and investment into the United States. But that is something that happens over a many-year period. And I think that is a challenge for presidents who are stewarding an economy, is Americans want relief right now, and it's often hard to deliver that.
It's one thing, of course, for Democrats to have won races in blue places, right? New York City, blue. New Jersey, pretty blue. Virginia, pretty blue, although a little bit less than perhaps New Jersey and New York. But Lisa Lair, I noticed these two races that nobody thought all that much about in Georgia, statewide commission races, were
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