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Lucas Swisher

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
675 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

It's not revenue growth that you want to chase.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

It's that.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Yeah, this is one of the hardest things.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

It's why we actually think the framework that we use internally is we think about valuation.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Everybody has to think about valuation.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

But when a company is growing exponentially, 10x year on year, 50x year on year, right?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

The things that we're seeing now, we think about valuation last.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

It's the last question we try to answer.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Is the valuation great?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Because you mentioned you may invest in a Series C at 20 million of ARR at 3 billion post.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

And that seems insane.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

But if the 20 goes to a 200 in one year and then 600 the next and 3 billion the next,

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

All of a sudden that looks extremely cheap.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

And so our job is how do you find the things that are on that curve?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Yeah, it filters down into every decision that we think about all the time.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

And I think the key is, first, you want to be in gigantic TAMs, big ideas only.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Because if you ever compromise on that very first principle and you're paying high valuations, you're in trouble.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

medium TAM, small TAM, you better believe that this thing can be absolutely gigantic.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

We have this test internally, right?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Inside Coatue's $7BN Growth Fund: Why Price Matters Least | Why Mega Markets are the Most Important | How Mega Funds Can Still Do 5x Returns | How to Assess Durability of Revenue and Margins in AI with Lucas Swisher

Where it used to be five years ago, we called it the $10 billion public company test, right?