Luke Vargas

I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

The war in the Middle East is causing the biggest disruption to oil markets ever seen, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA this morning slashed its forecasts for oil supplies, saying it now expects supply to grow by just 1.1 million barrels a day this year, a dramatic cut from the 2.4 million daily barrels expected previously.

All supply growth is now expected to come from outside of the OPEC-plus alliance and

with the conflict forcing major Gulf producers to curb output and effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz.

Overnight, crude prices topped $100 a barrel after Iran attacked three cargo ships trying to transit the waterway and hit two oil tankers in Iraqi waters with projectiles.

And the threat to international shipping isn't confined to the Persian Gulf any longer.

Iranian media is reporting that Houthi rebels in Yemen could join the fight against the U.S.

and its partners and force the closure of a narrow passage at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Bab el-Mendeb Strait is the world's fourth-largest shipping chokepoint and allows vessels to access the Suez Canal via the Red Sea.

Meanwhile, 13 days into the war, the economic winners and losers are coming into focus.

It's something reporter Chelsea Delaney has been doing the math on.

Chelsea, I think we've got to start by talking about energy first.

Earlier, we quoted the barrel price of oil, but that's not what people are paying at the pump.

Tell us what we're seeing there, specifically in the U.S.

so far.

Bad news for households and probably other businesses reliant on fuel costs as well.

OK, so there's our inflationary risk.

Beyond the U.S., there are other losers on the energy front, unsurprisingly, as well.

The Gulf, particularly hard hit as well, even though often in conflicts, their energy exporting status has been a bit of a cushion for them.