Lynne Thoman

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you would like to mention that you have not already talked about?

Warren, what are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?

Warren, thank you so much. This has been fascinating.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

He's the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, which is the group of forecasters who won the U.S. intelligence community's forecasting competition. And Warren is not only the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, he's also one of their top super forecasters. I'm excited to find out from Warren how super forecasters forecast and how we can all get better at forecasting.

Welcome, Warren, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. Warren, let's start with why is forecasting important? Where do we use it?

And how do most people forecast and what's wrong with their approach?

To quote from the beginning of Philip Tetlock's book, Super Forecasters, we are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold, unquote. But how good are we actually at predicting the future? And how can we get better? Hi, everyone.

For big events like market crashes or looming wars, or for policy decisions like tax cuts or sanctions or tariffs, we turn to the experts, those people that are supposed to be the most knowledgeable. How do experts do as compared to super forecasters?

I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with super forecaster and CEO of the Good Judgment Project, Warren Hatch.

So the first part of a forecast is really the question. Can you give some examples of what good forecastable questions should be or are?

So if somebody were wanting to use super forecasting in their personal life, can you give some examples of how to frame questions?

What's the first thing that super forecasters do that's different?

In 2005, the University of Pennsylvania's Philip Tetlock published a study showing that experts performed about as well at making predictions as what he called dart-tossing chimpanzees. and those who were surest of their predictions did much worse than their humbler colleagues. The study caught the eye of the United States intelligence community, which set up a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

What are the other steps to get better forecasts?

Warren, what have you learned recently from forecasting and events in the real world, if you will?

So when there are big unexpected events in the world, black swans, if you will, is when your approach of the super forecasting really shines?

And can you give some examples of what you call dark gray swans?

The undisputed winner of the tournament was the Good Judgment Project, which was led by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Over four years, their forecasters answered 500 questions and made a million forecasts that were more accurate than even intelligence analysts who had access to classified data. My guest today is Warren Hatch.

It is my pleasure. Let's start with some stories. Tell us about the pilot who took off without requesting clearance from air traffic control.

Although most of us think of ourselves as rational, we're much more prone to irrational behavior than we realize. My guest today has some stunning examples of irrationality. One of the most shocking to me is why the head of flight safety for a major airline, an experienced pilot with thousands and thousands of hours of flight experience,

took off at a busy airport without getting clearance from airport traffic control? What psychological forces make us act in irrational ways and when are we most vulnerable to them? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists.

It's so interesting to me that we have these irrational behaviors that essentially blind us to the objective world around us. Can you tell us about your example of the NBA draft and what happens if an NBA player is a low draft pick? What happens if he actually plays his or her heart out?

So shocking to me. Ori, can you share the example of the substitute professor? What happened?

It's so shocking to me that once the professor is described as cold, his personality and his teaching ability essentially cease to matter. His students dislike him. It alters their whole perception of him and essentially sours the relationship before it even begun.

Your examples to me are so eye-opening. Can you share the example of the Israeli soldiers and the officers?

Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Ori Brafman. Ori is a distinguished teaching fellow at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business and a New York Times bestselling author.

And the soldiers themselves, because they were being treated as higher command potential, they actually did perform better. Is that right also?

So when we form an initial impression of people or when we're given an initial impression from somebody else, the people then take on the characteristics of our expectation. Is that what happens?

Because we essentially treat them differently. We treat them more favorably and they respond to that.

So for the person who's labeling some other person, whether it's the Israeli officers that are labeling the recruits, do we essentially become blind to all evidence that contradicts the initial assessment?

So what you're saying is that essentially our expectations change the way we see the world. I mean, essentially a rose by any other name doesn't actually smell as sweet.

His most recent books include The Starfish and the Spider and Sway, which is about the irresistible pull of irrational behavior. Today, I'm excited to talk to him about the hidden forces that make us act irrationally. Welcome, Ori, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

And we are blind to anything that does not meet our expectation. We simply see things or wait things more than meet our expectation. Yes. So interesting. And how do we unblind ourselves so that we see reality more objectively?

And you use the critical word positive. How do we make our expectations more positive?

I love that. Ori, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, Ori. This has really been wonderful.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

There have been several nuclear accidents at nuclear power plants, including Three Mile Island in the US, Chernobyl in Russia, and Fukushima in Japan. How do you see the risks from nuclear energy?

Secretary Moniz is by background a scientist. He earned his doctorate in physics from Stanford and served as head of MIT's Department of Physics and as director of the Bates Linear Accelerator Center. Then he joined government, serving as Under Secretary of Energy and then Associate Director for Science in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Office of the President.

The risk of a nuclear catastrophe, whether deliberately by accident or miscalculation, seems to be growing. Today, there are nine countries which have close to 20,000 nuclear weapons. In addition, there's radioactive materials from nuclear power plants and other sources. You are the head of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. What threats are you most worried about?

He was appointed Secretary of Energy by President Obama and served as Secretary of Energy for four years. Secretary Moniz is currently the co-chair and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which works to mitigate nuclear, biological, cyber and other threats.

What are some specific opportunities that you see?

What are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

As a scientist, former secretary of energy and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, he has a unique perspective on global warming, energy and nuclear and other threats. Welcome, Secretary Moniz, and thank you so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Thank you. Thank you for your service in government. And thank you for your leadership of NTI to reduce nuclear and other threats.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

It is my pleasure. Let's start by talking about energy. Demand for energy is increasing in the U.S. as well as worldwide. The U.S. accounts for about 11% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Because of the increasing demand for energy, the U.S. is consuming both more fossil fuels and more renewables. How do you see the energy situation in the U.S. ?

Global warming, such a hot topic. Many believe that global greenhouse gas emissions are being driven by the developed countries, especially the US and Europe. But that's not actually the case. China accounts for nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. And the next largest emitters are the US at about 11%, then India at 7%, and Russia at 6%.

The emissions of all other countries are each below 3%. The US and the four largest European countries, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, account for less than 15% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.

Speaking of demand, there have been articles saying that artificial intelligence is an energy hog using as much electricity as small countries. How much impact will artificial intelligence have on energy demand?

What does electrify the economy mean to you?

Wind energy in Texas is very inexpensive and Texas has been called the king of wind. But there's more to the story. What are people missing?

So even if the US and Europe achieve net zero, which is to say no net greenhouse gas emissions, global greenhouse gas emissions will still increase if emissions are increasing in the rest of the world. Energy is complicated. The issues include environmental impact, cost, scale and energy security. What should the US and other countries do? Hi, everyone.

How does the price of energy from different sources in the United States compare? How competitive are renewable prices?

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with former Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz.

Are there any new technologies that you're excited about that you think will come online in the next few years that are affordable, scalable, safe and sustainable?

We haven't yet talked about China. China, as you know, accounts for about 30 percent of global greenhouse emissions. What is China doing with respect to energy and what do you think they should be doing?

I love that insight about the context. Thank you, Tyler. This has been wonderful. I really enjoyed your books, Talent and Big Business.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm excited to find out why the U.S. economy is so much more dynamic and faster growing than other countries. Welcome, Tyler, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. How do you compare the U.S. to Europe, Japan and other countries?

Is the U.S., especially compared to other countries, a nation of opportunity and prosperity? And if so, why do you think that is?

While there's a lot of dissatisfaction in the US, what many don't realize is how well the US has done economically compared to the rest of the world. Back in 2000, the US economy was about 20% smaller than the European Union. Today, it's about 30% bigger. Because of the U.S. economy's much faster growth, per person income has grown much faster. And U.S.

How do policies of the U.S. compare to other countries?

And how do you seek creative destruction? And can you start by explaining what it is?

GDP per person, that is gross domestic product per person, is nearly double that of Europe. Astonishingly, the GDP per person for Mississippi, which is the poorest state in the U.S., is now higher than that of France, Italy, the U.K., and Spain. Why has the U.S. done so much better economically than other countries? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

Protectionism sounds appealing because it claims to protect workers. How does protectionism work in practice?

Can you make it more concrete with an example? Say, take something like steel.

If you had to summarize why US economic growth has been so much higher compared to other countries, what would those reasons be?

The U.S. is highly influential in music, movies, entertainment, and sports. Why do you think that is?

Why do creativity and startups flourish in the U.S. ?

You have said before that in the U.S., it's more acceptable or even admired to be a loner or to be different or in your words, to be a weirdo. Can you elaborate on that?

And how would you compare that admiration for nonconformity to some other countries?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Tyler Cowen.

How would you compare the US, for example, to Germany or Denmark?

Nine of the 10 largest companies in the world by market capitalization are American. Why do you think that is?

Attitudes toward big business are often negative. Why do you think that is, and what would life be like without business?

And business makes most of the stuff we enjoy and consume, and it also gives most of us jobs.

And what drives business to be inclusive and tolerant? Are there any forces that push business in that direction?

He's a professor at George Mason University and general director of George Mason's Mercatus Center, a university research center that focuses on the market economy. He also writes for The New York Times, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal. In addition, he is the author of numerous books, including his last two books, which are titled Big Business and Talent.

How do you see business at its best?

So far, we've talked about prosperity and the possible. We haven't talked about downsides and risks. What are the major risks that you see?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention?

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Fires, earthquakes, stock market crashes, and even wars. They seem totally unrelated. But what if all these catastrophes follow the same hidden pattern? Is there a natural structure of instability which explains both natural and human catastrophes and why they happen? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

I love those three takeaways. Thank you, Mark. This has been great. I loved your book, Ubiquity.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

Mark, can you explain the new math that underlies our world?

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

You found that fires, earthquakes, avalanches, stock market crashes, wars and other catastrophes follow the same hidden patterns. What are those hidden patterns?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today I'm excited to be with Mark Buchanan. He's a prize-winning physicist and author.

You believe that catastrophes aren't random, that they follow essentially rules. Can you explain more?

Does that mean that instability isn't a glitch in the system, whether it's avalanches or earthquakes or pandemics or wars, but it's actually the system itself?

Mark, can you summarize the underlying pattern of instability and where you see it?

He was formerly editor with the international science journal Nature, and he's written for many other journals and newspapers, including the New York Times. His books and articles explore ideas of physics to better understand patterns in other fields.

And this idea of instability underlying so many natural and human systems really was discovered through experiments with grains of sand and building sand piles and then applying the math to other types of systems. Can you briefly summarize?

His wonderful book, Ubiquity, tells the fascinating story of the discovery that there is a natural structure of instability woven into the fabric of our world. I'm excited to find out more about the pervasiveness of instability and why both natural and human catastrophes happen. Welcome, Mark, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Well, thanks for having me on. It is my pleasure.

And if I can summarize, it's really based on this idea of sandpiles where you're adding an additional grain of sand and where you have increasing fingers of instability and that that additional grain of sand could cause a small avalanche or a big one, that it's completely random. Is that right? Precisely. Is there anything we can do to mitigate these catastrophes?

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

I'm going to start this episode by asking my guest today to read an excerpt from his book.

Thank you. So, Ori, what is a leaderless organization and can you give some examples?

Has the internet unleashed this force?

So you really have the power of the crowd involved.

Most people would assume that the absence of structure, of leadership and formal organization is a weakness. Is it?

Can you compare both centralized and leaderless organizations and give some examples?

And what holds these leaderless organizations together?

What are these leaderless organizations and how powerful are they? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

Right.

So these networks are incredibly resilient. Do they easily mutate?

So you've talked so far about groups that don't have any assets, if you will, the terrorist groups, the home church groups. What happens when there is an asset or a right to land or money or some other asset? What happens?

So interesting. You mentioned Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, as a leaderless organization where unpaid volunteers curate the entries. What happens if the contributions were highly paid? Is it going to be similar to the Apaches?

Today, I'm excited to be with Ori Brafman. Ori is a distinguished teaching fellow at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business and a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent books include The Starfish and the Spider, which is about leaderless organizations, and Sway, which is about the irresistible pull of irrational behavior.

Can you give some more examples of the largest leaderless organizations?

What is the potential and what is the future of leaderless organizations?

And how powerful do you think that leaderless organizations can become?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention that you have not already talked about?

Interesting. Ori, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Today, I'm excited to learn about leaderless organizations and find out how powerful they really are. Welcome, Ori, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Thank you, Ori. This has been fascinating. I really enjoyed your book, The Starfish and the Spider.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Thank you, Sarah. This has been wonderful. Thank you for your work to find another habitable earth. Wishing you success and soon. Thank you very much. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Sarah is currently a professor at MIT, where she leads the university's research on life beyond Earth. She is a MacArthur Fellow, having won one of the most prestigious grants in science, a MacArthur Foundation so-called genius grant. Sarah is so invested in finding another Earth that she even threw herself a planet hunting birthday party.

She rented out an auditorium at MIT and invited dozens of guests from astronomy and astronomy related fields. And she challenged them to help her come up with a winning strategy to find another Earth. I'm excited to find out how we'll find a planet that is habitable for humanity and how we'll recognize life elsewhere in the universe.

Welcome, Sarah, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Thank you very much. Sarah, you fell in love with space and the stars and the planets. What do you love most of all about astronomy and being an astronomer?

Most astronomers believe that because of the vastness of the universe, the fact that there are trillions and trillions of stars and planets, that there could be life elsewhere. But with so many possibilities for life, how will we find or recognize life on other planets, whether it's microbes, plants, or perhaps even intelligent civilizations?

Yes. I wish I knew, though, more about the stars and what I'm looking at.

What are a couple of things that would surprise people about space and exoplanets?

And how will we know which planets are habitable by us? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

As we think about alien life, life elsewhere in the universe, it's useful to think about the wide variety of life on Earth. There are animals on Earth deep in the sea that don't need oxygen and others that don't need sunlight.

And there are other animals that can survive temperatures as low as negative 50 degrees centigrade, negative 58 degrees Fahrenheit, like the Siberian salamander in northern Russia, which can actually freeze solid during the winter and then thaw out when the weather warms.

And there are also animals that can thrive in scorching temperatures as high as 175 degrees centigrade, almost 350 degrees Fahrenheit, such as the Pompeii worm, which lives in hydrothermal vents in the depths of the ocean. Do you think we'll be able to recognize life on other planets?

Do you think that there are or have been other advanced civilizations elsewhere in the universe?

Can you explain how astronomers are essentially time travelers?

That to me is so interesting. Sarah, I believe as a non-astronomer, there are essentially two parts of the universe. There is the observable part of the universe and the non-observable part, if you will. What do we know about the observable universe?

Today, I'm excited to be with astronomer and planet hunter Sarah Seeger. When Sarah arrived at Harvard in 1994, the only planets beyond our solar system were Star Trek fiction. No planets outside of our solar system had been discovered. But every star in the sky is a sun. And since our sun has planets, it seemed possible that other suns would also have planets.

How large is the observable universe approximately?

Your life's work is finding a planet habitable for us, a planet in the so-called Goldilocks zone. What would that look like and how are you hoping to find one?

Exciting. You talked about what life might be like on different types of planets. What would life look like on a planet that had a much stronger gravity than ours? Yeah.

And how do you think personally about finding another Earth?

Sarah was a graduate student in astronomy when the first reports of planets outside our solar system, so-called exoplanets, were coming in. Her advisor asked her if she wanted to work on these planets, and she jumped at the chance. She began working with one of the first teams of scientists focused on finding exoplanets, and she has been searching for another Earth ever since.

So exciting. Sarah, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

So interesting. Thank you, Dalton.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

So Dalton, why wasn't it that simple? Is there one gene for arthritis or heart disease or schizophrenia?

And even the genes don't tell the whole story. Can you explain gene expression, what it is and how it works?

For centuries, we've wrestled with the question of what makes us who we are. Is it our genes or our environment? Are we born with a set of traits that define us? Or is it the world around us that shapes the course of our lives? It turns out that it's not as simple as one or the other. What have we learned about nature versus nurture and what makes us who we are?

But it's not just the genes that we actually have, it's which genes are turned off or turned on.

So interesting. We often think of our genes and our environment as separate forces, but you believe they're actually intertwined and that there's a feedback loop. How does that work? And can you give an example? I love your example of the sprinter.

Hi everyone, I'm Lynne Thoman and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

How does this apply to intelligence or personality traits that are often considered intrinsic?

Today, I'm excited to be joined by Dalton Conley, a Princeton professor who studies the role of genes and the environment. He's the author of the new book, The Social Genome. I'm excited to rethink everything we thought we knew about the nature versus nurture debate and what makes us who we are. Welcome, Dalton, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

So parents might unknowingly treat their children differently based on their kids' genetic traits. Can you give some examples of how that plays out and what impact it has?

As the parent of school-aged children, how has your own perspective on raising children changed now that you understand the interplay between genes and the environment so deeply?

If there's one thing that you want people to understand from your research, what would it be and how can we use this knowledge to make better choices in each of our own lives?

It's my pleasure. Can you please read aloud a great quote of yours?

So genetics and the environment, how important are they both? Is it 60-40 genetics versus the environment? Is it 90-10? Where do you come out?

Dalton, what are the three takeaways?

Did the United States' disastrous exit from Afghanistan and the perception of U.S. weakness contribute to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and also to the Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian attacks on Israel? How can the U.S. and other countries better ensure global safety and security? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

How will artificial intelligence affect the power of nations?

Thank you. You've written wonderful but scary novels about the next world war.

How do you see Greenland and the potential range of alliances, outcomes,

I know you're a big believer in smart power and carrots, not military force. Indeed. What do you see in terms of opportunities? And do these include public-private partnerships? And what else?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention? What should I have asked you that I did not?

What are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?

100%.

Admiral, thank you for your service in the military. And thank you for joining Three Takeaways today. This has been a pleasure. And I very much look forward to your 2084 book in the fall.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

What impact do you think that the U.S. 's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan has had?

And it's also had effects on our military as well.

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Admiral James Stavridis.

You mentioned Taiwan. What, in your opinion, are some of the likeliest ways that China could attempt to increase influence or even take over Taiwan?

What do you think that the U.S. and other countries should do with respect to China? You've mentioned Taiwan. You mentioned the South China Sea and cyber.

Admiral Stavridis is a retired four-star officer who served as Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Before that, he was Commander of U.S. Southern Command with responsibility for all military operations in Latin America. And prior to that, he served at sea in aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers.

And how do you see the Middle East? Is that similar?

We seem to be facing a range of maritime security crises, including Europe, where internet cables on the sea floor have been tampered with, the Middle East, where the Houthis in Yemen are firing on ships traversing the Red Sea, the South China Sea,

which you mentioned where China is reinforcing its claim to the whole South China Sea by building up and fortifying small islands and the Arctic Sea where the ice is melting and navigation is increasing. How do you see these issues? Who is securing the oceans and the seas and who will pay for it?

He is currently vice chair global affairs at the Carlyle Group and chair of the board of the Rockefeller Foundation. In addition, he is a bestselling author who has published, I think, 14 books and hundreds of articles in leading journals around the world. Welcome, Admiral Stavridis, and thank you for your service in the military and also for joining Three Takeaways today.

Traditionally, countries with large militaries and large and powerful military equipment such as aircraft carriers had an advantage. Is that still the case?

What do you think the future of war looks like with all these new technologies, inexpensive drones, unmanned weapons, cyber, AI?

Rush, you mentioned that the US needs a new approach to alliances and partnerships. Can you explain?

Kurt, what are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?

Rush Doshi served at the National Security Council as Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan. He is currently Director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations. Kurt and Rush are the co-authors of the recent article, Underestimating China in Foreign Affairs Magazine.

Thank you both. Thank you for your service in government. And I really enjoyed this conversation.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm looking forward to finding out how we are underestimating China and what a smart and effective U.S. strategy toward China would be. Welcome, Kurt and Rush, and thank you both so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

pleasure is mine. Kurt and Rush, your arguments on China are fundamentally based on China's scale. So before we talk about the US and China, can you put the power of nations and the importance of scale in a historical perspective?

I'm going to start today's episode by asking one of my guests to read aloud from his recent Foreign Affairs article. Kurt, please go ahead.

Can you talk more about how important scale is now and the different dimensions of scale?

So the four pillars of scale, if you will, and you've talked about a couple of them, are demographics, economics, science, and the military. What about the demographics and the military?

Kurt, could you elaborate more on a comparison of the U.S. and Chinese military?

So even if China's growth slows, it will remain formidable. That raises two questions. Are we underestimating China? And what would a smart U.S. strategy toward China be? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists.

Rush, you published a book titled The Long Game shortly before you were tapped to become the China director for the National Security Council. Can you summarize how you see China and their long game?

Rush, what is China doing now in its relations with other countries?

Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. Kurt served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State, and before that, as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He is currently Chairman and CEO of the Asia Group.

Peter what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

His most recent book is Consider the Turkey. Welcome, Peter, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Thank you, Peter. Thank you for your time today on Three Takeaways. And thank you for your work and your books on ethics and how we should live.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

It is my pleasure. Peter, let's start with some numbers so everyone understands the scale of what we're talking about, about how many animals, cows, lambs, pigs, chickens, and fish are produced for food each year.

That's an enormous number of animals. As you've pointed out, raising all those animals has a huge impact on the environment. What is the impact on the environment?

As my guest today says in his book, in 2015, Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer asked what present practice universally engaged in and accepted by people of great intelligence and moral sensitivity will be seen by future generations as abominable in the way that we now see slavery as abominable. Mr. Krauthammer's answer was our treatment of animals.

How does the share of animals in contributing to global warming compare to other sources of global warming?

I'm convinced, he wrote, that our great-grandchildren will find it difficult to believe that we actually raised, herded, and slaughtered them on an industrial scale for eating. How should we think about our treatment of animals? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

For each pound of beef, pork or chicken that we eat, how much grain or food is actually required?

Those numbers are huge. Let's talk about how different types of animals are raised, grow, and live. Can you tell us about pigs?

How about cows?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be joined by Peter Singer. He's thought a lot about our ethics and our treatment of animals.

How about farmed fish? Is that more humane?

How about chickens? What kind of lives do they live?

Is there a lot of demand for chicken breast meat and how does that impact the raising of chickens?

What you describe as how these animals live is horrifying. What do you see as the main ethical problem with eating animals?

He was born in Australia, educated at the University of Melbourne and the University of Oxford, and became a professor of bioethics at Princeton University Center for Human Values. His work specializes in practical ethics, and he is known for his work on animals and on global poverty. He's the author of numerous books, including Animal Liberation, Practical Ethics, and The Life You Can Save.

How do you believe that we should act toward animals?

Should we treat different species of animals differently? For example, should we treat dogs differently from turkeys?

What do you think about AI generated celebrities or actors or musicians?

What are you most excited about in media and entertainment?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention that you have not already talked about?

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

How do you think about series and how do you choose and shape shows? Is it based on algorithms?

Bonnie, thank you so much. This has been wonderful. Well, thank you. This has been fun and I hope we can do it again. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Media will change in ways that we can now only begin to imagine with the possibilities of immersive, personalized and interactive entertainment, as well as AI generated celebrities. What does this future look like? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

And what did every series that you greenlit need? What makes great content and how do you shape it?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be joined by Bonnie Hammer. Bonnie was vice chairman NBC Universal from 2020 to 2024.

So interesting. You mentioned Netflix, that Suits is now on Netflix. How do you see Netflix and Amazon Prime Video?

It seems like the big blockbusters, the movies, the shows and the events are increasingly popular. How do you see big blockbusters? Do hits rule now more than ever?

Is the strategy on producing content now bigger, fewer, better? Or what is the new strategy on developing content? I think each entity looks at it differently.

As someone who rose from an entry-level production assistant job, whose chief charge was a dog, to vice chairman at NBC Universal, Bonnie Hammer knows all facets of the media and entertainment business. She was named vice chairman of NBC Universal in 2020, and she also led the creation of Peacock, NBC's streaming service. She has just published a new book, 15 Lies.

Less expensive. How does digital technology and social media change the role of talent? Is power shifting to the stars?

Is power shifting to the stars with their huge social media followings?

Like so many things these days. Yes. We haven't yet talked about artificial intelligence. Right now, AI is mostly used to recommend what we should watch or listen to based on past behaviors. It seems on the cusp of becoming a full-fledged content creator. How do you see the future of AI as a content creator?

Yes, I think that that's a worry that we won't be able to understand what it's recommending or what it's doing. And essentially that we'll need another AI to check an AI, which seems a fraught situation. Another impact of AI that seems to be on the cusp of happening is interactive and immersive experiences.

It's so exciting to imagine watching a movie or maybe a sports game and being able to jump into the scene itself using virtual reality. How do you see the potential of interactive and immersive experiences?

I'm excited to find out from her what the future of media and entertainment looks like. Welcome, Bonnie, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

How do you see the potential of interactive experiences where viewers can influence the show in real time?

What role do you think that biometric data like heart rate, eye movements, or even neural feedback will play in shaping personalized and interactive entertainment experiences?

It is my honor, Bonnie, to have you as a guest. So thank you. I was surprised to learn that TV shows are far more popular than movies and that TV shows and series account for roughly 75% of viewing. That seemed really high to me. But as I thought about it, I realized that it made sense when you consider that TV shows and series are longer and have more episodes than movies.

Yes. And as you mentioned, double edged before that to me seems the epitome of double edged. It could make the experience so much more heightened and it could also be so much more addictive.

It is my pleasure. Are people eating differently now? And if so, how?

And so critical for any organization, whether it's a business or a school or a nonprofit or a government entity.

Thank you, Jason. This has been wonderful. And thank you for your wonderful Whole Foods stores, which benefits so many people, the consumers, your team members, and all of your suppliers and farmers.

I hope you enjoyed this conversation about the food we eat and the issues around the care of the animals, the workers, the community, and the environment. If you're interested, we have a related episode about the 200 billion animals which are raised for food each year, often in horrific conditions.

Did you know that the contribution of these animals to global warming is greater than the emissions of all the cars being driven around the world? Renowned Princeton bioethics professor Peter Singer shares on the impact of raising 200 billion animals for food on episode 224 of Three Takeaways.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

What should people understand about their food choices and their impact? What is it that they don't realize yet?

we all are increasingly shopping online so why did amazon spend nearly 14 billion dollars by far the most it's ever spent on any acquisition to buy whole foods a brick and mortar national grocery chain and how are the foods we eat changing and how do the food choices we make affect the environment Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

I'm glad that you made it more concrete. So what happens when somebody either buys or orders in a restaurant chicken breast meat? What's the impact?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

Increasingly, as you mentioned, people want to know how their food is sourced, how the animals are treated. Do you only work with suppliers that meet certain standards? And if so, what are those standards?

Today, I'm excited to be with Jason Beekle, the CEO of Whole Foods, which is the first and only certified organic national grocery store in the United States. Jason has been at Whole Foods for over 10 years, taking over from Whole Foods' amazing co-founder, John Mackey, who's also been a guest on Three Takeaways. Jason was there when Amazon bought Whole Foods in 2017.

I have to tell you, I always purchase your Vital Farms eggs. They taste different. They taste better, actually. Yeah.

And are farmers incentivized to support what's good for people or what's good for animals or what's good for the planet?

plastic contamination seems to be pervasive. Even trusted brands and organic foods are not immune. Newsweek just published an article on a new study which found that well-known brands like McDonald's, Burger King, and Starbucks were all found to have products with high levels of microplastic contamination.

And the products with high plastic levels range from cheeseburgers to milkshakes to kitchen staples like salt and even to organic products. And there was even one kind of Whole Foods organic rice. What are your thoughts?

I'm excited to learn from Jason how people's food choices are changing, how the food choices people make affect the environment, and what the grocery store of the future looks like. Welcome, Jason, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

What does the grocery store of the future look like? How will Whole Foods be different five years from now?

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Hudson Yards is another innovative project. It transformed a 10 plus block area of the city that was previously known as Hell's Kitchen. Can you talk about that?

After spearheading New York City's Economic Development Corporation, Seth became head of one of the city's preeminent cultural organizations, the 92nd Street Y. I am excited to find out the innovative ways that cities can be re-energized. Welcome, Seth, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Seth, you've talked about this huge variety of successful transformations. What are the keys to success?

Seth, you're now leading one of New York's premier arts and cultural institutions, the 92nd Street Y. People like Bill Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, Peggy Noonan, and Malcolm Gladwell all come to the 92nd Street Y, but it's also a place where people come for coffee. How do you think about arts and culture in a city?

It is my pleasure to have you as a guest today. Seth, New York is a heavily built-up city where it's hard to get things done between powerful unions, real estate owners, and Wall Street. You were selected to head the Economic Development Corporation by Mayor Mike Bloomberg, one of the best mayors any city has ever had. How did you start?

What are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, Seth. Thank you. This has been wonderful. Thank you for your leadership in New York's economic development and your leadership now of the 92nd Street Y. Thank you.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Most people, both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, live in cities. And we take our cities as they are, assuming they're hard to change, especially in positive ways. But it is possible to change cities, even ones as densely populated with skyscrapers, buildings, sidewalks, and people as New York. How can cities become more vibrant?

So there were several crises, and each time you and the Bloomberg administration used those crises as opportunities. How did you use Hurricane Sandy as an opportunity?

And what does an inspiring renewal that attracts new residents and businesses, revitalizes neglected neighborhoods and creates a better city look like? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists.

Can you give two or three specific examples of what was accomplished?

You mentioned the financial crisis. Many cities are dependent on one industry, and New York was no exception. It was very dependent on Wall Street. And when Wall Street had bad years, the city suffered both economically and in terms of jobs. One of your goals was to diversify the city away from finance. And diversifying a city's business is a key objective of many cities.

especially when the key industry or key companies move elsewhere. But unfortunately, many cities are not successful at doing this. How did you think about diversifying New York's economic base and what did you do?

Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Seth Pinsky. Seth was the head of New York City's economic development arm under Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Mayor Bloomberg appointed Seth as president and then CEO of New York City's Economic Development Corporation.

You also thought about geographic diversification. You thought New York was too centered on Manhattan and its central business district, as opposed to the other four boroughs of New York City, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island. How did you think about diversifying the city geographically and how did you do that?

New York has been revitalized by a wide variety of diverse and innovative initiatives. These include a new sports stadium, enormous new public spaces and gardens, transformed neighborhoods, a new technology campus and strengthened arts, culture and entertainment.

The High Line, which transformed a derelict rail yard, is an example to me of an extremely innovative project. Can you talk about that?

He is the perfect person to ask about how American workers and families are actually doing. Welcome, Mike, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. Is today's economy delivering for American workers?

So, Mike, how have workers and families done over the last 10 or 20 years?

The message people receive today is that hard work won't pay off, incomes won't grow, and they can't climb up the economic ladder. Politicians on both the left and the right agree on this. There's not much they agree on, but they do agree on this. President Trump has been very clear, saying...

That's great. There are clearly areas of challenges, but overall, it sounds like workers and families have been doing much better.

What's happened to the broader quality of life? Has it improved significantly for typical households over the past one or two decades?

A surprising fact to me is that the combination of a shorter work week, more paid time off and longer retirement means that the fraction of people's lives taken up by work has fallen by 25 percent since 1960. That's huge.

Mike, what's happened to households in the bottom 20 percent? How have they done?

If you break Americans into three groups by household income, bottom group, families earning less than $35,000 a year, middle group, those earning between $35,000 and $100,000 per year, and then the third group, those earning over $100,000 per year, what's happened to those three groups?

And Senator Bernie Saunders has said, and I quote, American workers are some of the most overworked, yet our standard of living has fallen. For many, the American dream has become a nightmare, unquote. This pessimistic view is pervasive. What do the data and the facts actually show about American workers and families? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

That is just a story that is not being told. That is so surprising.

What happens if all people hear from political leaders in both parties is that the game is rigged against them, that they are victims, that they are victims of the elites, of globalization, of free trade and of immigrants. And what they hear is that they can't succeed. What is the impact of that?

How can we strengthen the American dream?

And what challenges do you see?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Michael Strain.

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, Mike. I very much enjoyed your book. The American Dream is Not Dead.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

He is currently a professor at Georgetown University and director of economic policy at AEI, as well as a columnist for Project Syndicate. He has previously worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank and the Census Bureau. His research and writing span a wide range of areas, including labor and social policy. His most recent book is The American Dream Is Not Dead.

Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Today, I'm thrilled to bring you our top highlights of 2024, featuring an incredible lineup of guests who've shared their wisdom and experiences with us this year. In this 2024 Highlights episode, we'll revisit some of the most compelling moments from the following guests. World-renowned historian Neil Ferguson.

I'm excited to be with Atul Gawande, a renowned surgeon and a professor at Harvard Medical School and the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. He's also an author who's written four best-selling books, which have revolutionized health care. Just one of his ideas, his checklist for operating rooms, has reduced surgical deaths in hospitals around the world by from 30% to 50%.

Can you talk about how you think about life expectancy

I'm excited to be joined by Peter Singer, who was born in Australia, educated at the University of Melbourne and the University of Oxford, and became a professor of bioethics at Princeton University's Center for Human Values. His work specializes in practical ethics, and he is known for his work on animals and on global poverty.

He's the author of numerous books, including Animal Liberation, Practical Ethics, and The Life You Can Save. His most recent book is Consider the Turkey, about how many animals, cows, lambs, pigs, chickens, and fish are produced for food each year.

What you describe as how these animals live is horrifying. What do you see as the main ethical problem with eating animals?

I'm excited to be with Wendy Sherman. She's an American diplomat who served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State from 2021 to 2023. How do you see this increasing cooperation and alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea?

I'm excited to be with Fareed Zakaria. Fareed is the host of Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN, a columnist for The Washington Post, and a bestselling author. How do you see the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. ? Are they weakened shells?

I'm excited to be with Marshall Goldsmith. He's an executive coach and founder of The 100 Coaches, as well as a New York Times bestselling author. I was fascinated by your insight that the higher you go, the more likely your mistakes are to be behavioral. Can you talk about that?

It's so interesting to me that when we think about very successful people, we rarely associate their success with technical skills or brain power.

I love your example of who people would rather have as a chief financial officer, the moderately good accountant who is great with people outside the firm and skilled at managing very smart people, or the brilliant accountant who's inept with outsiders and alienates all these smart people under him.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm excited to be with Melody Hobson. Melody grew up in a household having electricity turned off, phones turned off, and being evicted. She grew up the child of a single mother, and her father was not present in her life. But despite growing up in such challenging circumstances, Melody's become enormously successful and a star and beloved.

She is president and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, a highly respected investment company with over $15 billion in investments. She's also the chair of the board of directors of Starbucks and a member of the board of JP Morgan. One of the things that you've said your mother told you was to make yourself indispensable. Can you talk about that?

Melody Hobson, president and co-CEO of Aerial Investments and former chair of Starbucks. former New York Times executive editor Jill Abramson, former defense and foreign minister of Norway Ina Eriksson-Soraida, former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, taste expert and food innovator Barb Stuckey, physicist and award-winning entrepreneur Safi Bakal,

I'm excited to be with Jill Abramson, former executive editor of The New York Times. What's changed in the media over the last 10 or so years?

I'm excited to be with Ina Erikson-Soraida. She was Minister of Defense and then Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway. She is a member of Norway's parliament and chair of the Standing Committee of Foreign Affairs and Defense. She is the perfect person to ask about the social, political, and defense disruptions roiling our world today. How do you see the United States?

I'm excited to be with former Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. How do you decide which cases to hear?

former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, negotiation guru William Ury, renowned global health expert Atul Gawande, Princeton professor and philosopher Peter Singer, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, Fareed Zakaria, political commentator and journalist and host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, and finally executive leadership coach extraordinaire marshall goldsmith here we go enjoy the show

You're going to love this conversation with Barb Stuckey.

Barb, where does taste happen? Is it solely in the mouth?

I'm excited to be with Safi Pakal. Safi is a former public company CEO, physicist, award-winning entrepreneur, and author of the wonderful international bestseller, Loon Shots.

I'm excited to be with Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and the co-founder of Schmidt Sciences. To quote from the introduction of Eric's new book, Genesis, the latest capabilities of artificial intelligence, impressive as they are, will appear weak in hindsight as its powers increase at an accelerating rate. Powers we have not yet imagined are set to infuse our daily lives, unquote.

Eric, where do you think AI and machines will be present in our lives and running our lives in five or 10 years?

Do you think there will come a point where machines will assume judgments and actions? And if so, what do you think the impact will be on both humanity and machines, of machines assuming and humans surrendering independent judgment and action?

I'm excited to be with William Urey, one of the world's leading experts on negotiation and mediation. One of your insights that I found fascinating, which I had never quite realized, is that negotiations sound differently, the ones that are going badly from the ones that are going well. Can you talk about how they sound differently?

My guest today is Neil Ferguson. He is one of the world's most renowned historians. He has extensively studied the rise and fall of civilizations. There were, as you point out, a series of 20th century experiments with the same people and the same cultures. There were two sets of Germany's east and west, two Korea's north and south, two China's mainland China and Taiwan. What happened and why?

He is chair of public policy and social science at Vanderbilt University and co-director of Vanderbilt University's Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. Prior to Vanderbilt, he was a professor at Princeton and founding director of Princeton Center for the Study of Democratic Politics. He has received the United States National Medal of Science.

His most recent book is Democracy Erodes from the Top. I'm excited to find out why the election of Donald Trump was not unusual and how important a role character plays in elections. Welcome, Larry, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. So Donald Trump is certainly unique and he's very different from previous U.S. presidents. Was his election an aberration?

Donald Trump is certainly unique, and everyone expected the election to be unusual. But what stands out about the 2024 election is the fact that by the data, it was not an unusual election at all. Donald Trump won 49.8% of the popular vote, so nearly 50% of the popular vote. That was comparable within a few percentage points to other Republican presidential candidates over the last 20 years.

How do you see the 2024 election compared to previous elections?

Can you give some examples of some of the numbers on how the Trump elections compared to other comparable Republican Democratic elections?

Trump's nearly 50% of the popular vote compares to George W. Bush's 48% and nearly 51% of the popular vote in 2000 and 2004. And it was higher than John McCain's 46% of the popular vote and Mitt Romney's 47%. So despite Donald Trump's unusual and unique character, his results were not much different from other Republican candidates. How could that be? Why wasn't the election more unusual?

And how did the votes by men for Trump compare to votes by men for previous Republican candidates? Was it very consistent and similar?

Does party matter more than the individual?

How do other factors besides party affiliation, factors such as natural disasters or other factors affect elections?

Interesting. What are the three takeaways about the U.S. election and Donald Trump that you would like to leave the audience with today?

Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Larry Bartels.

Thank you. I really enjoyed your book, Democracy Arose from the Top. Thank you.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm going to start the podcast today with my guest reading the beginning of his recent New York Times op-ed article. John, please go ahead.

Hopefully we will. John, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

He's an American doctor who has practiced medicine and worked as an emergency room doctor in hospitals throughout the US and the world. He's worked in places as diverse as Alaska, Antarctica, and Nepal. He is also the author of the book, The Unseen Body, and he has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other newspapers.

Thank you, John. This has been really interesting. And thank you for your work to bring medicine into the 21st century.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Welcome, John, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. When ChatGPT and other large language models appeared, you saw your job security go out the window. Let's start with the technical side. What did you expect from ChatGPT on the technical side?

So you expected the technical side to be excellent, diagnosing complex diseases and offering evidence-based treatment plans, but you were surprised by the communication side.

In one study, Chad GPT's answers to patient questions were rated as both more empathetic and of higher quality than those written by actual doctors. How is that possible? AI is not caring or empathetic.

Students all learn in medical school how to break bad news to patients. What are the do's and the don'ts?

One of the do's that at least resonated with me, really made sense to me, was to think about using the, quote, I wish line as in, I wish I had better news. That somehow makes it seem more personal.

As you've so eloquently said, John, you initially recoiled in medical school at the idea that compassion and empathy could be choreographed like a toolbox or like a set of dance steps. But what happened when you were actually practicing medicine as an emergency room physician and you had to deliver really bad news?

You've thought a lot about pre-written scripts. Where do you see them in society and what do they accomplish?

So the one thing that he thought he would have over AI was his bedside manner. But is that true? Does it matter who or what we interact with in medicine or elsewhere in our lives if it provides us with compassion, empathy, and clear communication? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

John, you believe in the power of scripts. Do you think we will be interacting increasingly with AI, AI seemingly empathetic or informative with scripts as opposed to interacting with other humans?

That is a scary new world. Does it matter that AI has no idea what we or it are even talking about if there are linguistic formulas for human empathy and compassion? Should we hesitate to use good linguistic formulas no matter who or what is the author?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. My guest today is John Reisman.

It does raise these more fundamental society challenges. Taking a step back on a more general level, should we worry about relationships between humans? Humans aren't always as empathetic as we could be.

For example, there's the classic story of the husband who comes home from work and he says to his wife, I had such a hard day at work, to which his wife, rather than being empathetic about his tough day, responds with, well, you wouldn't believe the day I had. Do you think that we as humans will become lonelier as relationships with other humans aren't perfect?

They take effort and relationships with humans may not be as easy or as empathetic as interactions with an AI assistant or an AI companion?

So what you're describing essentially is that these public sector unions get benefits for their members in terms of rigid work rules and job restrictions and much higher pensions and health benefits. And in return, what do the politicians get?

What do the public sector unions generally want? Where do they come out on taxpayer initiatives to limit spending and reduce taxes?

Philip, can you read aloud from your book, please?

Can you summarize the impact of these public sector unions and collective bargaining agreements? they've made government unmanageable and largely unaffordable. So in your view, do elected executives, presidents, governors, and mayors, or their appointees or public supervisors, such as school principals, police captains, and crew chiefs on highway repair teams, have effective authority?

Right.

And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, Philip. I very much enjoyed your books, Everyday Freedom and Not Accountable. Nice to be with you, Len. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

That is horrifying. Is it the same for other government employees, such as teachers, social workers, highway crews, sanitation workers, and others?

I'm going to start this episode today by asking my guest to read an excerpt from his book, Not Accountable. Philip, please go ahead.

And you believe that much of the blame for this stems from public sector unions' collective bargaining. Can you explain?

Can you talk more about how collective bargaining agreements in the public sector preclude and limit management choices generally? And then we'll talk about some more specific examples.

Can you give some specific examples? Let's start with the police. What are some restrictions or limitations on the police?

What's going on? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Philip Howard.

It's shocking to me that these contracts govern who can teach what and when they can teach. They limit the number of parent conferences, that they limit student evaluations and performance assessments. Are these contracts, these restrictions and limitations, one of the main reasons in your view that the majority of US public schools have such bad outcomes for students?

Let's talk about the impact of collective bargaining and rules on a couple of other sectors. Can you talk about sanitation, for example, garbage collection?

How about correctional officers, prison guards?

He's a leader of government reform in America. He has advised both Republican and Democratic parties. He's also an author, and his most recent books are Everyday Freedom and Not Accountable. I'm looking forward to finding out why, no matter who is elected, government almost never changes how it works. Welcome, Philip, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Nice to be with you, Lynn.

How about the cost? What does this do to costs?

You've given a couple of examples about New York. I think New Yorkers are shocked that the Second Avenue subway cost was $2.5 billion a mile, more than five times the cost of a similar subway in Paris.

Yep. So far, we've talked about the impact of these rules on the ineffectiveness of government services and agencies. Let's flip and now talk about some of the examples of the benefits that government employees get. Let's start with early retirement.

How about spiking?

How about health benefits? Do public sector employees and retirees get better health benefits than private sector ones?

Great story. Bonnie, what is the most common piece of advice that you dole out?

Bonnie, before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with, is there anything else you'd like to mention?

That is lovely. What are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with?

Welcome, Bonnie, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. I'm delighted to be here, Lynn. It's always fun. It is my pleasure. Let's talk about your lessons learned. What do you think about Don't Sweat the Small Stuff?

Bonnie, this has been wonderful. I would add an interesting one word to your first takeaway, which is yet. That for people who can't do something, not to say I can't do it, but to say I can't do it yet.

Bonnie, thank you so much. I really enjoyed your book, 15 Lies. Thank you. It's always fun. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm going to start this episode by asking my guest today to read an excerpt from her book.

And for you, your first job as a production assistant was to essentially follow around and take care of a dog. And if you hadn't done that job well, your career would not have taken off the way it did. Can you talk about that?

What do you think about the fake it till you make it strategy of trying to appear knowledgeable and confident?

I love your story about what happened when you were asked to edit four shows, including, I forget what the acronym stands for, WWE, and you'd never done an editing job in your life before, and how you were able to do that, but also how being an outsider and knowing nothing about it actually helped you. Can you talk about that?

So what are these rules that too many people believe that actually aren't true? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

How important is being the smartest or the most knowledgeable person in the room?

I don't think most people appreciate enough the fact that as you become more senior, it becomes more about the other people and having the other people become stars and flourish.

Many children are raised today being told that they can do anything. What happens when they start their first job?

One of the first people that I interviewed for Three Takeaways was Joel Peterson, who was then chairman of JetBlue. And one of his takeaways, which I thought was so interesting, goes exactly to your point. It was about feedback. He called feedback the breakfast of champions.

Today, I'm excited to be joined by Bonnie Hammer. She rose to become vice chairman of NBC Universal by rejecting common myths about how to act in the workplace. She believes that the traditional wisdom about work hold people back.

And Barry Diller fell into one of those categories.

Having risen from an entry-level production assistant job where her chief charge was a dog to become vice chairman at NBC Universal, Bonnie Hammer challenges conventional workplace wisdom and shares the uncommon sense needed to succeed. She is the author of the new book, 15 Lies. I'm excited to find out what the rules and lies are that too many people believe that actually are not true.

And how did he challenge you to be better? How did he give feedback to you that was really helpful?

Before that, she served as Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. In that role, she was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal. She led the US team during multiple negotiating rounds between Iran and other world powers. Before that, she was the North Korea coordinator. Ambassador Sherman has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state.

Countries are increasingly focused on space. How important is space and how do you see the increasing competition in space?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention that you haven't already talked about? What should I have asked you, Wendy, that I have not?

I agree with you. What are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?

I'm looking forward to finding out how she sees the world today, including the growing cooperation among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as well as other issues such as the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the world order and the growing competition in space. Welcome, Wendy, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Good to be with you, Lynn.

Thank you, Wendy. Thank you for your service in government. And thank you for our conversation today. Take care. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Thanks for the conversation. Thank you. And thank you for your service in government. Let's start by talking about individual countries. How do you see China?

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many have believed that superpower conflict was over and that democracy had won. But that belief has been upended with the rise of China, the Russia Ukraine war and increasing ties between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

China, after decades of rapid growth, has become the second largest economy in the world after the United States, with an economy about the size of the entire European Union. And China, Iran, and North Korea have each been supporting Russia in its war in Ukraine. China is supplying vital components for Russia's war effort. Iran is producing drones and ballistic missiles.

And how do you see North Korea?

And North Korea is providing troops. These four countries, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all share an antipathy to the United States and to democracy. How important is this growing cooperation between these four countries and what are its implications? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

And how do you see this increase in cooperation and alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea? How important is it?

And what do you think that the United States and its democratic allies need to do?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Wendy Sherman. She's an American diplomat who served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State from 2021 to 2023.

Is there a way to reduce the incentives for China to deepen its ties with Russia and Iran?

There are certainly challenges over Taiwan. Is there anything else the United States can do to protect Taiwan, to deter China?

Could Taiwan survive if there were a naval blockade of Taiwan by China?

Historically, countries with leading technologies such as gunpowder and steamships were able to dominate other countries. Some people, such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who was recently a guest on Three Takeaways, believe that artificial intelligence will reorder the power of nations with the countries who lead in AI able to dominate.

How do you see AI and its potential impact on the world order?

has a history of transformational public infrastructure projects, like the Erie Canal, the transcontinental railroads, and the interstate highway system. Could these projects have been built today?

Let's start with a present day example, the Biden administration's inability to expand broadband, despite the fact that Congress allocated $42.5 billion to do that. What happened?

In 2021, the US Congress allocated $42.5 billion to expand broadband to underserved areas. No money has been spent. Joe Biden's 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated $7.5 billion to build a national network of EV car charging stations. Three years later, only 11 had been built.

So how do final decisions get made when you have 10 or 15 or more groups that are all analyzing and evaluating a project from many different perspectives?

New York and New Jersey have for decades been trying to rebuild the rail tunnels under the Hudson River, which were originally built in 1910. There are numerous other examples of stalled infrastructure projects. America today is essentially operating on road, rail, water, electric, and other infrastructure that were built over a hundred years ago. What's the problem? Hi, everyone.

So who can make a decision to go forward on an infrastructure project?

How did the system that we have with so many groups involved in offering perspectives and analyzing and evaluating evolve?

Can you summarize what you call the quicksand of the approval process?

Effectively, what you're saying is that the approval process has so many different groups involved and that there are always going to be trade-offs and there are always going to be requests or demands for additional studies or analysis that no decisions can be made. And you believe the only way to become more effective is to have a more effective decision process.

What do you mean by that?

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Philip Howard. He's a leader of government reform in America.

You need a person to be accountable and be able to make the decision.

I believe that because many projects like pipelines take 10 plus years and there's no decision and they can't move forward. Yeah. Philip, what are your three takeaways?

I love your takeaway on government being more important now than ever. Thank you. I very much enjoyed your books, Everyday Freedom and Not Accountable. Nice to be with you, Len. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

He has advised both Republican and Democratic parties. He's also an author, and his most recent books are Everyday Freedom and Not Accountable. I'm looking forward to finding out why, no matter who is elected, government almost never changes how it works. Welcome, Philip, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Nice to be with you, Lynn. Philip, the U.S.

And the next stage after AI agents, you believe, will be robots, AI in a physical body, if you will.

The future is amazing and it's coming sooner than we think. The future is here now. The next wave after robotics, you believe, will be AGI, Artificial General Intelligence. What do you think its capabilities will be and where will it be used?

David, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, David. This has been wonderful. My pleasure. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes.

You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Let's start with predictive AI, your stage one of AI. How does it work?

Artificial intelligence, whether people realize it or not, is all around us. It's being used in our daily lives in unexpected ways with unexpected results. Where is it being used now and what's next? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists.

You believe that stage one of AI is predictive AI and stage two is generative AI. How is generative AI different than predictive AI?

Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with David Schmeier. David is the President and Chief Product Officer of Salesforce. Salesforce is an American cloud-based software company, which is the world's largest enterprise software firm.

So that's the fundamental difference.

Can you give some more examples of generative AI and what it can do? Sure.

David, can you explain what an agent is, how you think about agents?

They are one of the leaders in technology, and their clients include 90% of Fortune 500 companies. In 2020, Salesforce replaced ExxonMobil in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Salesforce has invested a billion dollars in generative AI startups, which David also oversees. Welcome, David, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

So AI works without specific instructions. For a company with millions of customers, how does AI enable that company to create a tailored and unique experience for each customer without giving the AI these specific instructions?

You talked about how today's large language models are multimodal and gave the example of text and video, but multimodal offers many more possibilities than that. Can you give some examples of multimodal and the potential?

Ben, it's great to see you again, and thanks so much for having me. It is my pleasure. Let's start by talking about how AI works. You believe there are four or five stages of AI. Can you tell us what they are? And then I'm going to ask you about each one in turn.

What are the implications of agents for labor? I've heard estimates that companies and organizations will need 20% or even 30% fewer employees. What do you think?

I love that advice, especially the advice on not picking up your phone in those little interstitial moments. Christine, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Christine, thank you so much. This has been wonderful. I really enjoyed your book, The Extinction of Experience.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Tech has made life much more comfortable and convenient. Everyone spends more time on their phones and their computers for work as well as for entertainment. But what is tech doing to us as individuals and more broadly to us as a society? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today I'm excited to be with Christine Rosen. Christine analyzes how technology alters human behavior.

So interesting. Do our devices give us more power and control over our experiences? Yes.

So interesting. And I suspect there are many people that spend more than seven hours a day on their devices. They may work all day or much of the day on their devices. And then when they go home, they may turn on a device for entertainment, whether that's Netflix or Amazon Prime Video or gaming or social media or dating apps. You said people become more impatient and more intolerant.

Does that mean that the physical world is going to feel less and less attractive to us?

She is co-founder of the journal The Atlantis and a frequent contributor to Commentary, National Review, and other news publications. She is also the author of the wonderful book, The Extinction of Experience. I'm looking forward to learning how technology is changing us. Welcome, Christine, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

So interesting. You talked about research you've done on people becoming more impatient. What does the data show?

We used to do things 100% on our own, based on our own instincts and serendipity. But we don't anymore. I think you have some wonderful examples, like restaurants or music. Can you talk about that?

Yes, if you walk by a restaurant and you like the outside of it. In the old days, you might walk in, but now my guess is almost 100% of people would check their device for reviews and ratings on the restaurant first.

I'm excited. Tech has made life so much more comfortable and convenient. Are we spending less time in person with other people?

Have our devices made us more risk averse?

What's changed when people do come together in person?

So these devices, as we know, are addictive, whether it's the movies where as soon as a movie ends, the next one is loaded and starting within a few seconds, or whether it's our phones pinging us with text messages or where somebody just wants to know what's new in the news for the world. It's so easy, so convenient for people just to continuously check their phones. What do you recommend here?

As a biotech founder and entrepreneur, as well as the author of Loonshots, Safi is just the person to ask about, as he says in his book, how to nurture the crazy ideas that win wars, cure diseases, and transform industries. Welcome, Safi, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

So you believe that the support and execution of loonshot ideas is what's critical, not necessarily the idea itself?

It is my pleasure. I really enjoyed your book.

So interesting that companies like Apple and Amazon have both the product type and the strategy innovations, whereas some other companies may have just the product type innovation or just a strategy innovation, like American Airlines and the frequent flyer programs. Safi, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Can you talk about some examples of the greatest loon shots and how they actually happened?

This has been wonderful. Safi, I really enjoyed our conversation and your book, Loon Shots. Thank you.

I hope you enjoyed today's conversation with Safi Bakal. If you're interested, we have two related episodes, episode 161 with Harvard Business School's Amy Edmondson on failing well, and also episode number 28 on Amazon. The episode is Working for Jeff Bezos and the Secrets of Amazon's Success.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

You would think that the first time someone had the idea of using an invisible sound signal to detect ships and planes, or a drug to kill tumors by choking their drug supply, or a drug to reduce cholesterol, that these ideas would be immediately recognized as brilliant and adopted. but are the most important breakthroughs immediately recognized as brilliant or are they written off as crazy?

So interesting. And Andy Jassy, who created that cloud business at Amazon, of course, is now Jeff Bezos' successor as CEO. And if you look broadly at these inventors of loonshots, who is it that comes up with them?

And how do we nurture more of the breakthrough ideas that win wars and cure diseases? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

What do you think about the idea of failing fast?

I was fascinated that many seemingly brilliant ideas, at least in retrospect, are dismissed as crazy. Can you talk about your example of what James Bond and Lipitor have in common?

Today, I'm excited to be with Safi Bakal. Safi is a former public company CEO, physicist, award-winning entrepreneur, and author of the wonderful international bestseller, Loon Shots. Safi co-founded a biotechnology company which developed new drugs for cancer. He led its IPO and served as the CEO for 13 years. He worked with President Obama's Council of Science Advisors.

Large organizations have the people and the money to back big ideas. Why don't large organizations innovate more?

Can you talk about the barbell structure, what you call the soldiers and creatives?

Safi's book, Loonshots, was selected as the best book of the year by Amazon, Bloomberg, The Financial Times, and The Washington Post. His book was also recommended by Bill Gates, Danny Kahneman, and Malcolm Gladwell.

Let's talk about Apple. Steve Jobs was amazingly creative with the iPhone, music, the App Store, iPads, and MacBooks. Apple under Tim Cook doesn't seem as inventive, yet Apple is thriving, and it's now the largest company in the world by market capitalization. How do you see Apple?

Phil, what are some other strategies that you've used and that you see?

Your media training must be fascinating. What impact has all of this had on you?

And you no longer do the types of public relations that you used to.

Phil, would you mind reading a quote from your book?

Phil, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you. Your book is certainly eye-opening. It will help us all to see what we read and hear on the news in a different way.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

I'm excited, too. Let's start with some of your most astonishing campaigns. You ran a no-fingerprints campaign to kneecap Los Angeles's bid to host the Soccer World Cup. The campaign for Los Angeles to host the Soccer World Cup was spearheaded by Bill Clinton. Tell us about it.

I'm going to begin this episode with my guest reading a quote from his book.

But when you were involved with this, Los Angeles lost their bid and Qatar won.

It is so shocking. And you even included Michelle Obama's words.

Does that really happen? And what are some examples? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

How did you wield the power of the press to shame Saudi Arabia into releasing a Turkish barber? That, to me, was another one of your extraordinary campaigns.

Phenomenal that you got him off of death row and free. Before we come back, when I ask you more about your tactics and how you invisibly influence news, let's talk about some more examples because the examples are extraordinary. Let's talk about a blue chip client. When you worked for one of the biggest public relation firms in the United States, your largest client was the U.S. Tuna Foundation.

Tell us about that.

Today, I'm excited to be with Phil Elwood. After working for nearly 20 years in the Washington public relations business for clients including Libya's Qaddafi and Syria's Assad, as well as many well-known blue chip companies, Phil Elwood reveals how stories literally get spun out of thin air. His job, which he was superb at, wasn't to manipulate public opinion. but to get others to do it for him.

But the firm essentially paid academics to make the arguments.

You mentioned the term astroturf organizations. What is that?

And in the Tuna public relations, you use an AstroTurf organization. Can you share on that?

And it sounds like such a, at least to a naive person, a legitimate organization, the National Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Coalition.

Just astonishing. You describe what you do as, quote, unobservable forces that produce effects by insensible or invisible means, unquote. Can you explain?

Let's talk about some of your strategies. One of your strategies that you tell your clients is don't be a hero. Always find a better villain. Can you tell us about that and give some examples?

One of your other strategies is paying people to say nice things. Can you tell us about that and give some examples?

Another strategy you talk about is what you're calling the astroturf strategy. How common is that?

Phil's new book, which is a great read, is All the Worst Humans, How I Made News for Dictators, Tycoons, and Politicians. I'm excited to find out from Phil how a PR operative manipulates people, facts, and the truth so we know what to be on the lookout for. Welcome, Phil, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Can you briefly summarize some of those successful activities?

It is my pleasure. The CIA is such a storied organization. Its precursor, as everyone knows, was created by President Franklin Roosevelt during World War II. But let's talk about how the CIA has done more recently. What do you think the CIA's greatest recent successes are?

Tim, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Thank you, Tim. I enjoyed your books, especially your histories of the CIA and the FBI. And I'm looking forward to your upcoming book, The Mission on the CIA.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the 3 Takeaways newsletter at 3takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

According to the CIA's website, the CIA is the world's premier foreign intelligence agency that collects and analyzes foreign intelligence and also conducts covert action for U.S. leaders. What is the CIA actually doing and how well are they doing at both foreign intelligence and covert action? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

So the president asked the CIA to run the prisons in Iraq and lead the interrogation of prisoners?

And how did that impact the CIA?

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Tim Weiner. Tim is an American reporter and author.

Intelligence is usually broken down into two parts, human intelligence and signals or digital intelligence. Was the theft of Putin's war plans by human intelligence or signals intelligence, or do we know?

So what is the CIA now doing versus Russia and China in terms of both human as well as signals intelligence?

What is the U.S. doing in terms of offensive cyber and tech attacks?

He worked for The New York Times as a foreign correspondent in Mexico, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sudan, as well as as a national security correspondent in Washington, D.C. He is also the author of five books and co-author of a sixth, and he is the winner of both the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award.

We know that Israel was blindsided by the attacks of October 7th. Was the U.S. as well? Was that also, in your opinion, a U.S. intelligence failure? And why did we fail?

Do we know what the CIA is doing in terms of intelligence and covert activity in other hotspots such as Lebanon, Syria and Yemen?

In your opinion, how is the CIA done with respect to China?

His books include Legacy of Ashes, which is a history of the CIA, and Enemies, which is a history of the FBI. His upcoming book, which is titled The Mission, is going to be about the CIA. I'm excited to find out from Tim about both the CIA's espionage and its covert activities. Welcome, Tim, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It certainly is. In your opinion, how is the CIA done with respect to espionage in Russia?

And how about with respect to the Middle East?

So far, we've talked mostly about foreign intelligence. We've not yet talked much about covert activity. Where has the U.S. been active covertly? And how do you think that is working out?

Such a wonderful quote. What happens when scientists scan the brains of healthy or well people as they experience art or music? What do they see?

As my guest today says, many of us tend to think of the arts as either entertainment or as an escape, a luxury of some kind. But it turns out that the arts are so much more. We now have scientific proof that the arts, in its countless forms, heals our bodies and enhances our wellbeing. The arts can be used to fundamentally change and enhance people's day-to-day life.

It's so interesting to me, the idea that people, that their bodies, that their heartbeats can synchronize or mirror each other's if they're feeling close to somebody or close to music. That to me is fascinating. The environments around us are so critical. Can you explain the concepts of an enriched and an impoverished environment?

What is this new science of art and aesthetics and how does it amplify our well-being? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.

What is the ultimate enriched environment if there is such a thing? Or can you give some examples, please?

Can you explain what an aesthetic mindset is?

What you're talking about is essentially a way of being. Can you give examples throughout the day of how someone with an aesthetic mindset, what they might see or do starting from the morning to the evening?

Today, I'm excited to be with Susan Magsumon, Executive Director of the International Arts and Mind Lab Center for Applied Neuroaesthetics at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. She's a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. She is also the co-author of the New York Times bestselling book, Your Brain on Art, How the Arts Transform Us.

That's lovely. How do you think about an aesthetic mindset compared to, for example, exercise or good nutrition?

Essentially, are you saying that to cultivate an aesthetic mindset, people need to expand and cultivate their sensory awareness, essentially an active way of being, and also to create an enriched environment around themselves? Yes.

Just to essentially experience everything around you fully to notice and appreciate. Yes, absolutely. Susan, I love the quote that you have at the beginning of your book. Could you please read it aloud?

I love that. What are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

I'm looking forward to learning how the arts and an aesthetic mindset transforms us and amplifies our health and well-being. Welcome, Susan, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Thank you so much for having me, Lauren. It is my pleasure. I loved your book. Susan, can you please read aloud from the beginning of your book?

I love that. And I love your favorite quote, that the world is full of magic things patiently waiting for our senses to grow sharper. Susan, thank you so much. I really enjoyed your book, Your Brain on Art. And I think it will really improve and transform people's lives moment by moment throughout their days and years. Thank you. Thank you. It's really a pleasure. It is a pleasure.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Neil, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Then he was asked to write episodes for the show, and the show became the hugely successful TV series ER about the lives and work of doctors and staff at a hospital in Chicago. At the time, Neil was a fourth-year medical student at Harvard Medical School with huge debt. And he went out to LA, and he loved it. He loved telling stories and working on ER with actors like George Clooney.

Thank you, Neil. Thank you for your time today. And thank you for your wonderful series.

If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook.

I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

He worked his way up from staff writer to story editor to producer to executive producer to showrunner of ER. And then after seven years at ER, he met Mariska Hargitay, who was the star of the show Law and Order Special Victims Unit. And he moved to Law and Order SVU. On SVU, he explored issues like teen access to abortion, guns, HIV, and euthanasia.

And after 11 years on SVU, he next worked on Under the Dome with Steven Spielberg. Following Under the Dome, he worked on Designated Survivor with Kiefer Sutherland. So he spent over 20 years on four hit series, ER, Law & Order SVU, Under the Dome, and Designated Survivor. That's extraordinary, given that most shows don't last beyond a single season or two seasons.

We all spent hours watching movies and series on Netflix and Amazon and on TV. When filmmakers get it right, the stories and the characters resonate with us. People become emotionally engaged and we can even see the world in new ways. What makes a great film or episode and how can films help us see the world differently? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways.

Neil has also worked with many great actors such as Kiefer Sutherland, George Clooney, Sally Fields, and Alan Alda. He's also worked with legendary directors like Steven Spielberg. And now he's working on a couple of Netflix series. I can't wait to see them when they come out.

I'm excited to find out from Neil what great storytelling is and how a great film, series, or episode can help us see the world in new ways. Welcome, Neil, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today I'm excited to be with Neil Baer. Neil is one of the most successful writers and producers in Hollywood.

And what makes one of those outstanding movies or shows? What is it that makes them so powerful?

And how do you make that compelling? How do you make a story compelling?

Neil, how do you bring stories to life and make them emotionally compelling for people? I mean, your stories have ranged from ER to designated survivor with Kiefer Sutherland as the president. How do you make your stories emotionally compelling?

He's worked on four hit shows that have aired for over 20 years and won multiple Emmys. Neil went to grad school in sociology and hated it. He also went to medical school. He randomly met the spouse of a friend who was a documentary filmmaker, and it changed his life. A director gave him a script that Michael Crichton had written.

Not easy. Neal, let's talk more about plot lines. How do you think about plot lines? What are the elements of plot lines that keep your audience engaged and anticipating what will happen?

The script captured doctors' lives in a way that had never been done before. Before, shows were always about the patients, and this script reversed it. Neil thought the script was outdated on the medical aspects, so the director said to him, fix it, and he did.

Fascinating. How do you think that movies and series have changed people's perspectives on cultural and social issues? And can you give some examples?

Let's dive in and rethink how we approach fire. Welcome, Jack, and thank you so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It's such a critical topic today. Jack, can you explain briefly the major causes of wildfires? Is it lightning or is it man-made causes such as sparks from power lines or is it something else?

Have wildfires changed in the 20th and 21st centuries? Are they different now than they used to be?

Wildfires are no longer just a seasonal occurrence. They've become an uncontrollable force. From the massive infernos ravaging California to raging blazes in far-flung corners of the earth, the scale of destruction is staggering. Entire communities wiped out, homes reduced to ash, lives forever changed. What was once seen as a natural part of the ecosystem now feels like an unstoppable disaster.

And when you look at the massive devastation of recent fires, such as those in L.A. and elsewhere, is the problem wildland fire management or is it urban fire management and the ways the fire spread in urban areas?

So how do fires spread in communities? Do they spread like a wall of flames that engulfs a whole neighborhood?

Is the most effective way then to fight fires more firefighting resources, more fire engines and firefighters?

So the question is, are we truly powerless against this growing threat, or is there a way for us to fight back? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists.

The home ignition risk management strategies that you believe are the most effective are flame resistant materials for roofs and for sidings and the clearing away of dead brush and plants away from homes. Is that right?

It would seem that changes to zoning requiring rebuilding with fire resistant materials would be beneficial to communities, especially communities like L.A. that have been devastated by fires. To your knowledge, is L.A. implementing new zoning requirements of flame resistant materials? Yes.

Jack, is there anything else you'd like to add before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Jack, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today?

Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be joined by Jack Cohn, a fire expert with a unique perspective, both as a firefighter and a U.S. Forest Service fire scientist.

Jack, thank you. Thank you for all your work fighting fires and mitigating damage to homes and communities.

Absolutely. It's such a critical issue now, and people just don't understand it correctly. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out.

If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

Jack co-developed the National Fire Danger Rating System and has spent years fighting and studying fires, transforming our understanding of them. His groundbreaking work on how homes ignite and fire spread is reshaping fire management. Today, we'll tackle an important question. Is the destruction we've witnessed inevitable, or can we do more to protect ourselves?

Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better.