Lynne Thoman

Thank you, David. This has been wonderful. My pleasure. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes.

Thank you, David. This has been wonderful. My pleasure. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes.

You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.

To quote from the beginning of Philip Tetlock's book, Super Forecasters, we are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold, unquote. But how good are we actually at predicting the future? And how can we get better? Hi, everyone.

To quote from the beginning of Philip Tetlock's book, Super Forecasters, we are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold, unquote. But how good are we actually at predicting the future? And how can we get better? Hi, everyone.

I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with super forecaster and CEO of the Good Judgment Project, Warren Hatch.

I'm Lynne Thoman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with super forecaster and CEO of the Good Judgment Project, Warren Hatch.

In 2005, the University of Pennsylvania's Philip Tetlock published a study showing that experts performed about as well at making predictions as what he called dart-tossing chimpanzees. and those who were surest of their predictions did much worse than their humbler colleagues. The study caught the eye of the United States intelligence community, which set up a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

In 2005, the University of Pennsylvania's Philip Tetlock published a study showing that experts performed about as well at making predictions as what he called dart-tossing chimpanzees. and those who were surest of their predictions did much worse than their humbler colleagues. The study caught the eye of the United States intelligence community, which set up a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

The undisputed winner of the tournament was the Good Judgment Project, which was led by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Over four years, their forecasters answered 500 questions and made a million forecasts that were more accurate than even intelligence analysts who had access to classified data. My guest today is Warren Hatch.

The undisputed winner of the tournament was the Good Judgment Project, which was led by University of Pennsylvania professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Over four years, their forecasters answered 500 questions and made a million forecasts that were more accurate than even intelligence analysts who had access to classified data. My guest today is Warren Hatch.

He's the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, which is the group of forecasters who won the U.S. intelligence community's forecasting competition. And Warren is not only the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, he's also one of their top super forecasters. I'm excited to find out from Warren how super forecasters forecast and how we can all get better at forecasting.

He's the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, which is the group of forecasters who won the U.S. intelligence community's forecasting competition. And Warren is not only the CEO of the Good Judgment Project, he's also one of their top super forecasters. I'm excited to find out from Warren how super forecasters forecast and how we can all get better at forecasting.

Welcome, Warren, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Welcome, Warren, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

It is my pleasure. Warren, let's start with why is forecasting important? Where do we use it?

It is my pleasure. Warren, let's start with why is forecasting important? Where do we use it?

And how do most people forecast and what's wrong with their approach?

And how do most people forecast and what's wrong with their approach?