Lynne Thoman

For big events like market crashes or looming wars, or for policy decisions like tax cuts or sanctions or tariffs, we turn to the experts, those people that are supposed to be the most knowledgeable. How do experts do as compared to super forecasters?

For big events like market crashes or looming wars, or for policy decisions like tax cuts or sanctions or tariffs, we turn to the experts, those people that are supposed to be the most knowledgeable. How do experts do as compared to super forecasters?

So the first part of a forecast is really the question. Can you give some examples of what good forecastable questions should be or are?

So the first part of a forecast is really the question. Can you give some examples of what good forecastable questions should be or are?

So if somebody were wanting to use super forecasting in their personal life, can you give some examples of how to frame questions?

So if somebody were wanting to use super forecasting in their personal life, can you give some examples of how to frame questions?

What's the first thing that super forecasters do that's different?

What's the first thing that super forecasters do that's different?

What are the other steps to get better forecasts?

What are the other steps to get better forecasts?

Warren, what have you learned recently from forecasting and events in the real world, if you will?

Warren, what have you learned recently from forecasting and events in the real world, if you will?

So when there are big unexpected events in the world, black swans, if you will, is when your approach of the super forecasting really shines?

So when there are big unexpected events in the world, black swans, if you will, is when your approach of the super forecasting really shines?

And can you give some examples of what you call dark gray swans?

And can you give some examples of what you call dark gray swans?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you would like to mention that you have not already talked about?

Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you would like to mention that you have not already talked about?

Warren, what are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?

Warren, what are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today?