Marisa

I'm trans so I have a motive to search for evidence that suggests I am roughly biologically valid roughly and not subject to some kind of psychosocial delusion.

It would be easy for me to cherry-pick individual papers to support that view.

I'm trying to not do that.

I'm also not going to attempt a full literature review here.

Luckily it is 2026 and we have a better option.

The ACE model from psychiatric genetics is a standard framework for decomposing the variants in a trait into three components.

A equals additive genetics.

Cumulative effect of individual alleles.

C equals common environment.

Parents, schooling, SES, etc.

E equals non-shared environment, plus error.

Randomness, idiosyncratic life events.

There are at least nine primary twin studies on transgender identity or gender dysphoria.

I created an LLM prompt asking for a literature review with the goal of extracting signal, not just from the trans twin literature, but from other research that could help give us some plausible bounds on the strength of biological and social causation.

Here are the results.

The format is point underscore estimate, range.

There's a table here in the text.

The heading row contains four columns which read model A C E. See the original text for the table content.

I'm moderately confident my prompt was not biased because the A values here are lower than what I've gotten from Claude when asking for heritability estimates from twin studies only.

Also, all the models included some discussion of the rapid rise in adolescent cases in the 2010s, often mentioning social contagion and ROGD theories explicitly.