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Mark Dubowitz

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1674 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Again, just to clarify, I just think it's important to understand the definition of terms.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Once you have 60% enriched uranium, you've done 99% of all the steps, including some of the steps that Scott's talking about.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

You've done 99% of what you need to have weapons-grade uranium.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

a deliverable nuclear weapon, so you need the weapons grade uranium.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And just to repeat, they have multiple bombs worth of the 60% enriched uranium, which again is 99% of the steps you need to take for weapons grade.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

So they're very close to weapons grade.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

That's 1% more that they need to do to enrich to weapons grade.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

The second aspect of a deliverable nuclear weapon is obviously the delivery vehicle, and those are the missiles.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And the

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

According to the DNI and other incredible sources, Iran has got the largest missile inventory in the Middle East, 3,000 missiles before the war began, and at least the ballistic missiles, 2,000 capable of reaching Israel.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

So there's no doubt that Iran has the ability, once they have the weapons-grade uranium and the warhead, to affix that to a missile and deliver that.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Certainly to hit Israel, hit our Gulf neighbors, hit Southern Europe.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

They also have an active intercontinental ballistic missile program, an ICBM program, which ultimately is designed not to hit the Israelis or the Gulfies, but to hit Iranians.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

deeper into Europe and ultimately to target the United States.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

So let's just understand the missile program.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

I think it's an important part of it.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

The third leg of the stool, and Scott has already alluded to this, and we've had some debate on this, and I think we should talk about it, what it really means in detail, is you've got to develop a warhead.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

or a crude nuclear device.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And according to estimates from both U.S.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

government sources and nuclear experts, it would take about four to six months for Iran to develop a crude nuclear device.