Mark Gagnon

You can't call it a war, even though we're putting boots on the ground.

So conflict.

But it is escalating rapidly and following a series of confrontations between Israel, the United States and Iran that had been really building up for years.

The specifics of how the war began are complicated and will be the subject of their own episode at some point.

But the key things really came in March of 2026, when Iran appears to have taken the steps that strategists have debated for decades.

According to commercial shipping trackers and early intelligence reporting, it moved to effectively shut down commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, at this point in our episode, you should understand the implications of that.

I mean, we're talking about a waterway that has been controlled in some way by

for 2,000 years because of how important it is.

And almost never did it have the ability to get shut down, or was it this valuable?

But now look at us.

This isn't one single dramatic act, right?

Based on a lot of early reporting, what appears to have unfolded is a combination of

Mine-laying operations, like literally putting down mines and explosives in the water, anti-ship missile deployments, and small boat swarms patrolling the shipping lanes.

And really explicit warnings from Tehran, the capital of Iran, that any vessel attempting to transit the Strait did so at its own risk.

Some tankers with military escort have reportedly continued with limited passage, but for most commercial operators, the Strait has reportedly become just a no-go zone.

though a full closure has not been independently confirmed.

But again, you don't have to close it.

It's not like they have a gate or a drawbridge or something.

They just need to make it volatile and turbulent enough to that insurance companies and private shippers don't want to use it.