Mark Gagnon

The militarization of these waters threatens the fisheries and the mines are going to threaten the communities that live there.

And it raises the risk of oil spills from tankers that are damaged.

And it really just disrupts the daily lives of millions of people who have literally nothing to do with any of this.

And the human cost basically never makes the headlines because, you know, no one really cares about the average person, the, you know, the middle to lower class person that's affected by these conflicts that has nothing to do with it or really has no say.

They just get pushed to the side.

Now, the United States and allied naval forces have reportedly been working to clear mines and establish protected shipping corridors, but the sheer volume of Iran's mine stockpile and the narrowness of the strait make this an enormous challenge.

It's also worth noting that closing the strait hurts Iran itself.

This is the reason why they haven't closed it for so long.

Iran's own oil exports transit the same waterway, and a prolonged closure would devastate an already

sanction-battered economy.

And that's part of why countries like Oman and Qatar, both of which have maintained diplomatic channels with Iran, have reportedly been working to mediate this conflict.

China, which brokered a surprise Saudi-Iranian diplomatic restoration in 2023, also has enormous stakes here as the world's largest oil importer.

One other wrinkle that makes the situation way more complicated, Iran doesn't have one navy.

It has two.

So there's the regular Artesh Navy that operates like...

a normal Navy.

And then you have the IRGC Navy, which operates with significant independence.

It has its own doctrine, its own chain of command, its own institutional interests.

That means even if Tehran's political leadership wants to deescalate, the Iranian government's like, you know what, we can figure out a way to make this work.

The IRGC's Navy and its commanders might just say no.