Mark Gagnon

And this is a complicating factor that makes the situation even more difficult to predict and even harder to negotiate.

Here's the strategic calculus that everyone's trying to figure out.

The United States almost certainly has the military capability to force the Strait open.

But doing so would likely require striking targets deep inside Iran.

Missile batteries.

Naval bases, command centers, top generals, things like that, which doing that would risk dramatic escalation.

Even if the Strait were reopened by force, it would take weeks or months to clear out the mines and restore commercial insurance coverage and rebuild the confidence of the global shipping industry.

The Western naval response isn't just the United States acting alone.

This is a combined maritime force, a 34-nation coalition headquartered in Bahrain alongside the U.S.

Fifth Fleet.

And it's been coordinating mine clearing and escort operations throughout the conflict.

But the sheer volume of threats in this narrow strait make this a massive challenge.

So here's a number that puts the stakes into perspective.

If Hormuz remains commercially disrupted for 30 days, that's roughly 600 million barrels of oil withheld from global markets.

And that is hundreds of billions of dollars in energy that simply just doesn't reach the people who need it.

Meanwhile, China has been quietly hedging against exactly this scenario, investing in Pakistani and Omani ports, specifically the Gwadar and the Dukum, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, specifically to create alternate energy import routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz because they see the potential volatility.

Those investments all of a sudden look a lot less theoretical.

Every day, the strait remains commercially disrupted.

The economy bleeds out.

So the Strait of Hormuz is not the only choke point in the global economy.