Mark Gagnon

isn't really a global superpower in the way that the United States or Russia or China is.

Its economy has been battered by decades of sanctions.

Its conventional military is no match for the United States or even some of the rivals in the region.

But because of the geographical circumstances, because Iran happens to sit on the northern shore of a 21-mile straight through which a fifth of the world's oil must pass, just by coincidence,

it has leverage that is wildly disproportionate to its actual power.

And again, they don't need to turn it off or to fight the American Navy.

They just need to disrupt it.

And the ability to threaten Hormuz is the most powerful strategic asset that Iran has.

It's more powerful than the missile programs, more consequential than any nuclear ambition.

If they can just put pressure and strain, it will show the cracks.

Because again, this is something that actually affects you that's watching at home.

Because if it costs you like 1.5% or 1.5 times more money to fill up your car, you're going to be like, hey, what's this war?

What are we doing with this war?

What's the point?

So it's one card that Iran can play that the entire world has to take seriously.

And from Iran's perspective, that's the point.

A country that can't match its adversaries conventionally is going to use geography to level the playing field.

And if Iran is under such a massive threat and they feel like regime change is imminent,

they're going to pull out all the stops.

So what does it mean for the global economy to have a critical vulnerability that can never fully be eliminated?