Mark Gagnon

I mean, you can build pipelines and put aircraft carriers and develop alternative energy sources and all that stuff to help with the margins.

But as long as the world depends on oil, specifically Persian Gulf oil, and as long as geography dictates that most of it has to pass through this tiny corridor in the middle of all these hostile states,

The Strait of Hormuz will remain what it has been for thousands of years, a pressure point, a flash pan.

I mean, just it's a reminder that the modern world is not nearly as resilient as I would like to hope that it is.

Now, this story about the Strait of Hormuz is, in a way, the story of humans' relationship with, you know, geography in and of itself.

I'm a big, like, I'm a big fan of geography.

I would consider, like, people use this term, but, like,

a geographical determinist, that basically the way I look at geopolitics is that the government is the player and your geography are the cards that you're dealt.

Now, you can't control really the cards that you're dealt.

You can sometimes go get new cards if you're brave enough.

But really, your ability to play is dependent on the cards you have.

And you can make decisions, but you're kind of confined by how many ports you have, how many natural resources you have, what kind of leverage you have over other countries, trade routes, all that stuff.

So for millennia, empires have risen and fallen along the shores of the Persian Gulf, and every single one of them has had to reckon with this narrow passage of water at its mouth.

The Persians, the Portuguese, the British, the Americans, they all recognize the same thing, that controlling the strait meant controlling the flow of wealth and power through one of the most resource-rich regions on the planet.

Now, what's changed the scale?

So when Alfonso de Albuquerque, which there's no way that's his name.

That's like a fake name from a guy from like New Mexico.

Must have taken a wrong turn somewhere.

100%, right?

So this guy, he basically built his fortress on Hormuz Island in 1515, and he was controlling the spice trade.