Mark Halperin

Here's Vice President J.D.

Vance on the topic.

S3, please.

So honestly, I still don't know what Iran's thinking here is.

But what I do know is that Israel is not inclined to stop.

Hezbollah is not inclined to stop.

And is that enough for Iran to say they won't show up for the negotiations?

We don't know.

But that's a lot of ambiguity on an important thing, because at this point, Israel has a practical desire to continue to fight back against Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has the same motivations for hitting Israel.

What's Iran's motive in citing this as a reason the talks may not go forward?

Then we've got the Strait.

OK, the Strait's obviously not wide open.

It's difficult to track what's going on there.

But from the reports I've seen and from talking to my sources in the U.S.

government, it's not wide open.

And Iran has made it clear in its public statements that if it does open during this two week period, it's opening with conditions.

It's not opening the way it was before the war.

Iran wants the ability to continue to control the Strait, at least partially.

And the president of the United States has said, no, that's not good enough.