Mark Halperin

Those things aren't going to change.

So I believe still after all my reporting that this is the most likely Democratic pickup.

They win the other six, hold three, win three, and then win this one.

But today you couldn't say Democrats are favored to win the Iowa Senate race.

Just couldn't say it too soon to say anything like that.

But there are reasons to think that they could.

So that's what it would take.

That's one path.

Another path would be winning the race in Alaska.

Now, Alaska is a is a weird state electorally.

They use this top four primary system.

So in August, August 18th, everybody votes for everybody on one ballot.

And then the top four finishers, regardless of party, go to the general election.

Now, that's a weird system and the uncertainty of that.

with ranked choice voting at the general election means you don't really know what's going to happen.

You don't know who the four are going to be.

You don't know how the whole thing's going to work out.

So between the top four system for the primary, right, in August,

The two, the top Republican candidate, the incumbent, Dan Sullivan, he'll be one of the top four.

The top Democratic candidate, former Congresswoman Mary Pelotola, she'll be in the top four.