Mark Halperin

Look at the map here again.

These are your nine races that are in play.

Democrats, based on my reporting, have to win six of these or their chances of the majority are negligible.

They have to win all the seats they're defending.

Maine, New Hampshire is an open seat.

Democrat, we'll talk about these individual races and drill down in a moment.

New Hampshire is an open seat.

The Democrats retiring and Republicans have a strong candidate.

Michigan is an open seat.

Democrats retiring, Republicans have a strong candidate.

Georgia is an incumbent Democrat, John Ossoff.

We've talked about him here before.

He's running a great race, but it's still Georgia.

It's still a state that's more red than purple or blue.

So to win the majority, to net four seats,

Democrats are going to have to win all three of the ones they're defending, okay?

And I'm telling you that's not an easy task.

Then the three most likely Democratic pickups, and all my sources agree, these are the three most likely, okay?

One is Maine.

Susan Collins is a Republican incumbent.