Mark Halperin

Not all that well-known.

It's a red state.

Generally, it's been trending red.

It used to be a purple state, trending red.

And guys got to wait till June to start running in the general, raising money for the general.

But there's countervailing forces.

First of all, Iowa farmers and people in ag and everybody in Iowa, almost everybody's connected to ag in one way or the other.

The tariffs haven't been good.

Gas prices, huge issue.

Diesel prices, huge issues in Iowa.

And the Republican Party has been in power for a long time.

So there's also a governor's race where the Democrats have a very strong candidate.

And that could help the Senate candidate.

So because of the redness of the state, because of the candidate quality, I'd have to make Ashley Hinson the favorite today.

But I do want to see what are the economic conditions in the state when we get to the general election.

What is the president's approval rating?

How do people feel about whoever the Democrats nominate, whether it's the state representative or the state senator?

So this one we need to see play out a little bit more.

But what we do know is it's a red state and Republicans have a strong candidate.

That's what we know for sure.