Mark Halperin

Democrats could win that.

The Hispanic vote's gonna be key no matter what.

And there's some indications that Hispanics are gonna either stay home or vote more for Democratic candidates than they have recently.

But I don't see it, ladies and gentlemen.

I will say based on my reporting and based on what I expect will happen to Talrico as this race goes on, I don't see Democrats winning this seat right now, even if it's Paxton.

And so you go back to the question, what's the most likely third seat?

Is it Texas, a red, red, red, red state?

Is it Iowa, where Democrats will have an unknown nominee and Republicans have a strong candidate, also a red state?

Or is it Alaska, where Republicans have a perfectly good incumbent and it's a red state?

I don't know.

I think Iowa is most likely, but then you look at the fundamentals there and it doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

so that's a challenge that's a challenge to get that seventh uh that that fourth pickup so i'll say again you know we've run through the nine races that uh are going to determine if they can take control and i hope you've seen as i've gone race by race that uh i won't say uh again they'll all go one way they could they could all go one way they could all go democrat

They're not all going to go Republican, probably, but they could because these races are really up for grabs.

But the important thing is just the statistics.

Right.

I've gone race by race and I've shown you Democrats are not shoo-ins on any of the nine.

And that's got to be a caution for anybody making a prediction about Democrats taking control.

All right, we'll take a quick break.

When we come back, I'm going to kind of wrap it all up and explain to you how to look at things going forward, because what I've told you today is a snapshot of where we are now.

I'll tell you what elements to look at in the months leading up to Election Day.