Mark Halperin

But also they believe that there's a good chance that more will come out.

So some of it's already come out.

If you were thinking, what would make a good Texas candidate or what would make a bad Texas candidate in a general election?

One thing you'd probably say is, well, if you want a good candidate, make him someone who likes meat.

And if you want a weak candidate, make him someone who's a vegan.

And this video of Tallarico, I can't tell you how many Texans have sent it to me, head-scratching, saying, is this going to be the first Democrat in decades to win statewide?

Take a look.

So very few of my sources would make Texas the missing last piece, the fourth seat pickup, if it's Cornyn.

And even now, if it's Paxton, some say...

Even then, our Democrats aren't going to win the seat.

The Paxton-Cornyn fight could go on for quite some time.

If the president doesn't endorse and they take it all the way to the runoff in May, there's going to be a lot of negativity.

And, of course...

The doom scenario for John Thune and other establishment Republicans is that Cornyn raises and spends and outside groups spend millions knocking down Paxton.

And then Paxton's the nominee and he's got all the baggage that they laid on him.

Here's just one of the many attempts.

Expect there to be more unless the president gets Paxton out of the race.

Here's one of the many attempts to rough up Ken Paxton based on his background.

So that one's not a gimme for Democrats either.

And again, there could be a confluence of factors if Magid doesn't turn out for Cornyn or if he's the nominee or more likely if Paxson's the nominee and independents and Hispanic voters just go in droves to Tallarico.