Mark Lister

Look, I don't know, to be honest.

Your guess is as good as mine.

We'll just have to see how things play out.

What I would say is that in July, the Reserve Bank won't have got the figures for that June quarter consumer price index.

They'll still be waiting for those.

So if they do choose to make a move then,

that would suggest that they are very worried about what they're seeing out there because they would not be doing it with full information.

They would be doing it with some of those high frequency indicators that are useful and are current, but they don't always give you a perfectly accurate steer about what's coming.

So it would be a bold move.

Hopefully we don't get to that.

And some of the positive signs we saw last week will continue because oil prices obviously came down.

on the back of that news flow on friday night but uh it is a watch this space if i had to guess right now then my view would be we are not as likely as that to see a july ocr hike and that we won't see as many as three before the end of the year but i do tend to be an optimist which means i tend to take the glass half full outlook but um that's where we're at anyway in terms of market expectations so cpi tuesday morning 10 45 that'll be the local highlight

internationally lots to watch as well flash pmis for april will be one of the highlights for me a pmi is a purchasing manager's index so it's essentially a survey based activity indicator the the word flash suggests that it is the early release of these it means they haven't done the full survey they're sort of 70 or 80 through the survey and you get those early results so

they're useful to us economists analysts market watchers because we get the flash readings earlier and sooner then we will get the full readings and they give you a pretty good steer about where things are headed so these will be released for australia for japan for the uk europe and the us they'll start on thursday morning and continue through that afternoon and into the evening so

The March indicators, unsurprisingly, signalled a fairly uncomfortable combination of falling growth and rising inflation pressures because of the outbreak of war, so we will be watching for how that changes, and if that changes.

It might get worse, it might stabilise, it might be more of the same, who knows, but

Thursday and Friday, those flash PMIs will obviously be very interesting.

The reporting season as well, this will continue.

The international reporting season, that is.

This is for the March 2026 quarter.