ep 358 | The week ahead - US shares surge to new highs, but will they stay there?
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On Point with Craig's Investment Partners. The information provided here is general in nature and it's not financial advice. It doesn't take into account your situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. All investments are subject to risks and none are guaranteed. Before you make any investment decisions, we recommend you contact an investment advisor. For more information about our services or to view the Craig's Investment Partners Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement, please visit our website which is craigsip.com. Welcome to On Point. I'm Mark Lister, Investment Director at Craig's Investment Partners, and I'll be talking about a range of topics including economics, portfolio strategy, investor education, and anything else that's happening out there in financial markets.
Hey team, how are you all going? A little late with this one. I usually have these week ahead episodes out very early on a Sunday morning, but been a busy weekend. We had kids sport on Friday night. Then we shot up to Auckland to watch the Warriors on Saturday night, didn't come back till Sunday. More kids sports somewhere else on a Sunday, so I'm only just getting to this on Sunday afternoon.
Probably could have just given it a miss and had the weekend off, but I'd never do that to you fellas. I don't like to leave you hanging, and I feel like it is my job to keep you informed. Here we are, better late than never. Anyway, last week, another very strong one for the S&P 500 index in the US. It surged another 4.5%, closed at fresh highs after we saw some positive developments in the Middle East. So after being down 9.1% from its highs, which came in January, so it was down 9.1% in late March, the S&P 500 has rebounded more than 12%. and it surpassed those previous highs. So it's now up 4.1% year to date and up 2.1% relative to those January highs. So if you held your nerve and resisted the temptation to sell during that volatile period, or even better, if you bought a few more bits and pieces, you'll be feeling pretty good about how things have played out for you.
Anything could happen this week, but so far so good if you find yourself in that boat. Other global markets rose as well last week. On the back of that positive news, emerging market shares were up 3.2%. Europe was 2.3% higher. Other markets pretty solid too. Most of those are still below their peak that we saw from January, February. It's only the US that has really rebounded and taken on new highs, but some of those other markets are very close to where they started, so it's been a strong recovery in most places. Not quite so much here in New Zealand. The local NZX 50 was actually down 2.1% this week, so it's still down almost 5% this year, and 6.2% below where it got to in January. So we haven't seen that same recovery yet.
However, it was a very strong night on Friday night in the US. That was when we got news that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, and we were closed when that happened. So we might play a bit of catch-up when we open on Monday morning. Same with Australia. However, it all depends what sort of news we see between now and then. It's been a really busy period. We got those positive signs of resolution last week, and on Friday during the US trading session, that's when we got the reports that the Strait would reopen and would remain open. for the period of the ceasefire. However, it was only a day later on Saturday when Iran came out and said it had actually reimposed the closure because the US didn't meet all of its obligations.
So, geez, I cannot keep up and I'm not even going to try and speculate on what might happen next because in the short period between me recording this, then editing it, then publishing it, Something else might happen, so we'll wait and see. Anyway, interest rates, they slipped back a little bit last week as well as some of the tensions eased. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.32 to 4.25. Here in New Zealand, our five-year swap rate ended the week six basis points lower at 3.91%.
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