On Point

ep 349 | Should we worry about the election, or get on with it?

17 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

With the election less than eight months away now, investors are increasingly starting to think about what it means for the economy, asset prices and ...

ep 348 | The week ahead - What will central banks have to say about surging oil prices?

14 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking group...

ep 347 | What should investors do about rising oil prices?

09 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it’s difficult to anticipate where it’ll go next. US crud...

ep 346 | The week ahead - Markets to keep grappling with Middle East uncertainty

07 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as w...

ep 345 | Should we be worried about a concentrated US sharemarket?

03 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top t...

ep 344 | The week ahead - US shares remain soft as other markets rise

28 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The S&P 500 index in the US fell slightly during February, dragged down by higher-growth and technology stocks. However, it was an extremely stron...

ep 343 | Don't be surprised if we see some midterms messiness across markets

24 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a sluggish start to the year for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 has also been more volatile of late, having fallen for five of the pa...

ep 342 | The week ahead - Is that the end of Trump's tariff plans?

21 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his Sta...

ep 341 | Inflation - is 3% the new 2%?

17 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per...

ep 340 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ bring forward its OCR hiking plans?

14 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the...

ep 339 | Here's where to look for evidence of a recovery

10 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we’ll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us ...

ep 338 | The week ahead - Where to next for markets, after last week's volatility?

07 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

It was a very volatile week for markets, with a strong rebound on Friday flattering returns from many asset classes and masking some of the weakness. ...

ep 337 | What can the “January barometer” tell us about the rest of this year?

03 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The first month of the year is behind us and despite what feels like a year's worth of market drama, the US sharemarket posted another healthy gai...

ep 336 | The week ahead - What might a Warsh-led Fed mean for markets?

31 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Markets will continue to digest the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair this week, while monetary policy decisions loom in the UK, Europe an...

ep 335 | The biggest investment lesson of 2025

27 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2025, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. However, there was one in particul...

ep 334 | The week ahead - Fed decision and Mag 7 earnings incoming!

24 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

There's plenty to watch this week, including the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. However, investors will get the chance to refocus on w...

ep 333 | What is Wall Street expecting from the S&P 500 in 2026?

20 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 i...

ep 332 | The week ahead - Is inflation set to exceed RBNZ forecasts?

17 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a ...

ep 331 - Why investors need to watch Japan closely this year

14 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanes...

ep 330 - Six predictions for 2026

06 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Will the OCR start to rise again this year, how might sharemarkets perform and where is the NZ dollar headed? Nobody has a perfectly working crystal b...

ep 329 - Where are house prices headed in 2026?

01 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Welcome to a new year! Let's tackle an important and popular topic that every self-respecting kiwi has a strong opinion about - the housing market...

ep 328 - Five observations from a big year for investors

27 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There’s just three trading days to go in 2025, and that’s all. We’re pretty much at the end of 2025, so let's look back on how returns from ...

ep 327 | Summer encore - The uncomfortable truth about inflation

25 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is back the target band and while it's not dead and buried, it's at least contained. However, that doesn't mean we can declare t...

ep 326 | Summer encore - Should I pay of the mortgage faster, or invest that spare cash?

21 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? If this isn't the most common investor question, then it's definitely in the t...

ep 325 | Summer encore - How do the uber-rich invest?

17 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Here's a fresh take on a popular episode from way back in June. We took a look at the 2025 UBS Global Family Office Report, which captured the views o...

ep 324 | The week ahead - a MONSTER week to close out the year!

13 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The last full trading week of 2025 is shaping up as an incredibly busy one right across the world. In the US, delayed jobs and inflation reports will ...

ep 323 | Wrapping up 2025, and looking ahead to next year

08 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This year will soon draw to a close, and despite plenty of ups and down along the way it's proved to be a lucrative one for investors. Let's d...

ep 322 | The week ahead - Will we get a Fed rate cut to finish the year?

06 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The focus this week will be on central bank decisions, with the main event to be the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (NZ time). Closer to home, th...

ep 321 | Are investors facing lower returns in the years ahead?

02 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Predicting investment returns isn’t easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when th...

ep 320 | The week ahead - Is that the end of the OCR cuts?

29 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Wholesale interest rates increased to more than three-month highs in the wake of the final RBNZ decision of 2025. The NZ dollar also rose strongly aga...

ep 319 | Why investors should embrace a market sell-off

24 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarket hit new highs, volatility has returned. This will be causing a lot of consternation among ...

ep 318 | The week ahead - Will this week's OCR cut be the last?

22 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the...

ep 317 | The local sharemarket just hit a record high, or did it?

17 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets ...

ep 316 | The week ahead - will the NVIDIA earnings release settle the AI boom or bubble debate?

15 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most imp...

ep 315 | The week ahead - The kiwi dollar sinks further

08 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of...

ep 314 | Could Labour’s CGT policy be a winner?

04 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Labour's targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We're yet to see the detail, but has it got some merit? Taxe...

ep 313 | The week ahead - Is unemployment set to rise again?

01 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A busy week looms in New Zealand, with the highlight set to be the September quarter labour force report, due Wednesday. Unemployment is expected to r...

ep 312 | How can savers deal with declining deposit rates?

27 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Lower interest rates have been a cause for celebration for many people in recent months. However, conservative savers with money on term deposit won’...

ep 311 | Are credit concerns a canary in the coalmine?

22 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US credit markets have delivered strong returns this year. Companies have been issuing record amounts of debt, borrowing costs have remained manageabl...

ep 310 | The week ahead - Inflation is headed up again, should we be worried?

19 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Investors will be watching US economic releases ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with the September consumer price index (CPI) report a...

ep 309 | What does a weaker currency mean for the economy?

14 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In recent weeks and months, the NZ dollar has weakened against most trading partners. It's down six per cent against the US dollar since the begin...

ep 308 | The week ahead - Trump threatens China with new tariffs

11 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The government shutdown is now into its 12th day and there aren't any signs of a compromise yet. At least we can count on the private sector to re...

ep 307 | Are US stocks in a bubble?

07 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a fantastic run for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 index is up 18 per cent in the past 12 months, and 83 per cent over three years. E...

ep 306 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ cut by 25 or 50?

04 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the latest Official Cash Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the clear highlight on W...

ep 305 | What might the final quarter of 2025 bring?

28 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course...

ep 304 | Has your home bias left money on the table?

23 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has ine...

ep 303 | The week ahead - Soft GDP puts a 50-basis point OCR cut on the table

20 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Res...

ep 302 | The asset outperforming everything else in 2025

16 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hittin...

ep 301 | The week ahead - Are we due for the first Fed rate cut of 2025?

13 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Her...

ep 300 | Why are markets upbeat amidst such grim data?

09 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half...

ep 299 | The week ahead - Did a weak jobs report just lock in a Fed rate cut later this month?

06 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic...

ep 298 | New Zealand's economic recovery is delayed, not cancelled

02 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks r...

ep 297 | The week ahead - Are Trump's tariffs illegal?

30 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the Augu...

ep 296 | What happens when mega-caps bend the benchmarks?

26 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That’s not hyperbole, it’s the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple toget...

ep 295 | The week ahead - A deluge of domestic earnings, plus NVIDIA in the US!

23 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while...

ep 294 | The bull market is back on, but does it deserve to be?

19 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months a...

ep 293 | The week ahead - An OCR cut is likely on Wednesday, but where to after that?

16 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another c...

ep 292 | Will the reporting season point to better days ahead?

12 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The local reporting season is heating up, and we’re all hopeful it’ll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks...

ep 291 | The week ahead - Can Trump broker a deal with Putin?

09 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump a...

ep 290 | Why lower inflation doesn't mean lower prices

05 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. Ho...

ep 289 | The week ahead - Is unemployment about to hit an eight-year high?

02 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be th...

ep 288 | Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or invest?

29 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, and it’s especially relevant today. While ...

ep 287 | The week ahead - Trade talks, jobs, the Fed and more Mag7 earnings - it's all on!

26 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A massive week looms for investors. Trade negotiations will remain front and centre, with markets particularly focused on developments between the US ...

ep 286 | Where’s the long-awaited housing market recovery?

22 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The country has dragged itself out of recession and mortgage rates have been falling for 18 months. However, against conventional wisdom the long-awai...

ep 285 | The week ahead - Brace yourself for a hotter CPI report here in NZ

19 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Here in New Zealand, the June quarter inflation report will be the key release this week. Markets are bracing for an increase in the annual inflation ...

ep 284 | This is almost as good as it gets for borrowers

15 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The RBNZ isn’t done with cutting rates just yet, but an important insight borrowers should take from last week’s "no change" decision is...

ep 283 | The week ahead - Global earnings deluge incoming!

12 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Markets will watching for further news on tariffs out of the White House this week, and keeping an eye on some key growth indicators out of China. Ear...

ep 282 | The overnight success of AI

08 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

AI could prove an extremely useful tool, making workers more productive and unlocking exciting innovations. While we've seen technological changes in ...

ep 281 | The week ahead - The RBNZ should cut this week, but will it?

05 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day re...

ep 280 | The myth of missing the ten best days

03 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during...

ep 279 | Forget about "average" sharemarket returns, because you'll hardly ever see them!

29 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That’s a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensu...

ep 278 | Second half outlook - what’s the market mood at the moment?

24 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

With the midpoint of the year upon us, it’s been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 i...

ep 277 | The week ahead - After a solid GDP report, is the OCR already at the bottom?

22 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in t...

ep 276 | What is stagflation and should it worry investors?

16 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflatio...

ep 275 | The week ahead - Middle East tension rattles investors

16 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will be a focal point, as investors watch for any further escalation between Israel and Iran. The G7 Leader's...

ep 274 | How much faith should we put in analyst recommendations?

10 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Analyst reports can be very helpful when gathering information and trying to learn about a company. However, investors should take a more holistic vie...

ep 273 | The week ahead - Will US inflation figures show signs of tariff-induced higher prices?

07 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Turning to the week ahead, the key economic release will be the May CPI report in the US, which is due overnight on Wednesday. Here in New Zealand, a ...

ep 272 | How do the world’s wealthiest families invest, and what can we learn from them?

03 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The latest UBS Global Family Office Report offers some fascinating insights into how the world's wealthiest families think about risk, time and opport...

ep 271 | The week ahead - US shares post biggest monthly gain in 18 months

31 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The last ten days or so have been very eventful. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the European Union before delaying it by five weeks, then the...

ep 270 | Greenback gloom

26 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We’ve seen a big change in the perception of US assets in recent months, which has been reflected in falling growth expectations, a more volatile sh...

ep 269 | The week ahead - Another OCR cut looms, but will this be the last?

24 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week will be an extremely busy one, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. The latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be ...

ep 268 | Drawdown déjà vu

20 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After being down 18.9 per cent from its recent peak, the S&P 500 index in the US has recovered and is now back in positive territory year-to-date....

ep 267 | The week ahead - Shares surge while the Budget looms

17 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It was a strong week global sharemarkets, with a 90-day trade truce between the US and China setting the positive tone early on. The S&P 500 in th...

ep 266 | Has the tariff truce turned the tide?

12 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After two days of discussions over the weekend, the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce. This was a bigger announcement than markets were exp...

ep 265 | The week ahead - NZX 50 on track for its best month in five years

10 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week we'll be watching economic indicators for signs of any impact from the tariff announcements in early April, with US inflation and retail sal...

ep 264 | If there's a US recession, which stocks will hold up best?

04 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There has been increasing talk of a US recession in recent weeks, with one major global bank suggesting the odds of this are 60 per cent. It’s certa...

ep 263 | Why Jerome Powell will be quietly fuming at President Trump

29 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A lot of people are frustrated with US President Donald Trump, but there’s one who has a more genuine case than most. That’s Federal Reserve Chair...

ep 262 | The week ahead - Jobs report a key test for markets

27 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It's a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the jobs report due on Friday, the ISM manufacturing index and core PCE inflation report ah...

ep 261 | A sell-off survival guide

15 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a very volatile few weeks for investors, and some markets and asset classes have fallen heavily amidst the uncertainty. All declines are d...

ep 260 | The week ahead - Investors ditch US assets amidst tariff uncertainty

12 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The US market ended the week up 5.7%, which saw it finish 12.7% off its February highs, having been down 18.9% at its weakest point and very close to ...

ep 259 | Deciphering a week of dramatic market moves

08 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The last several trading days have been extremely volatile for global markets, with US President Donald Trump unveiling a harsher set of tariffs than ...

ep 258 | The week ahead - An OCR cut looms against a very volatile backdrop

05 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It was an extremely volatile week for global markets, as "Liberation Day" sent investors into a tailspin. Investors will be watching for sig...

ep 257 | With Q1 behind us, what's in store for the next three months?

01 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The March quarter of 2025 is behind us and if it’s any guide of things to come, we’re in for an eventful year! The quarter was punctuated by polic...

ep 256 | The week ahead - Markets on edge as US tariffs loom in April

29 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The focal point of this week will be the details of US reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to be implemented on Wednesday (April 2). A day later, ...

ep 255 | What’s with the mixed messages from our economy?

25 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Last week's gross domestic product (GDP) report was comforting, coming in above expectations and pointing to the strongest improvement in 18 months. T...

ep 254 | The week ahead - Flash PMIs will take the pulse of global growth

22 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Global flash PMIs for March will be a focal point early in the week, while PCE inflation will be one of the US highlights. The Conference Board’s US...

ep 253 | The week ahead - Will the GDP report reflect a recovering NZ economy?

15 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Central banks will be in focus this week with monetary policy decisions due in the US, Japan and the UK. The Fed will be the obvious highlight and alt...

ep 252 | It's officially a correction, so where to from here?

13 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 in the US is down 10.1 per cent from its February highs. A fall of more than ten per cent is generally cons...

ep 251 | The market leading the charge as the US falters

10 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After two consecutive years of 25 per cent plus returns, the S&P 500 index in the US is down 2.5 per cent this year as investors fret over tariffs...

ep 250 | The week ahead - Tariffs to kick in and Trudeau set to be replaced

08 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week's highlight will be the February inflation report in the US, with the University of Michigan survey also in focus amidst weakening confi...