ep 398 | The week ahead - NZ dollar slumps to a 15-year low
episodePreviously titled “ep 398 | This week ahead - NZ dollar slumps to a 15-year low” — renamed by the publisher on Sep 20, 2026
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What is the weekly market recap and key global moves discussed at the start of the episode?
On point with Craig's Investment Partners. The information provided here is general in nature and it's not financial advice. It doesn't take into account your situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance. All investments are subject to risk and none are guaranteed. Before you make any investment decisions, we recommend you contact an investment advisor. For more information about our services or to view the Craig's Investment Partners Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement, please visit. our website which is craigsip.com. Welcome to On Point. I'm Mark Lister, Investment Director at Craig's Investment Partners, and I'll be talking about a range of topics including economics, portfolio strategy, investor education and anything else that's happening out there in financial markets.
G'day team, hope you're all well. Let's take a look back at last week, then let's turn our attention to what's coming up in the days ahead. Last week was another mixed bag for global markets, oil still above $100 a barrel, and we saw the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023. The Bank of Japan also lifted its policy rate, that's at a 31-year high. And after the European Central Bank raised rates. The previous week, it looks like we are very much in a synchronized global tightening cycle. So that did take the shine off risk assets. We saw the SP 500 index in the United States slip back just slightly. It was down 0.1%, but still the second negative week in a row. The UK was marginally higher. Europe and emerging market shares fell 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.
Effectively, Japan bucked the trend. The Topics index was up 1.6%, while the ASX 200 in Australia ended the week down 0.1%.
Why did the New Zealand dollar fall to a 15‑year low and what does that mean for exporters?
The local NZX 50 had a much better week than most. We were up 1.2% last week. Interest rates, the US 10-year treasury yield, finished the week just below 5%. During the week, it did hit the highest level since 2007. Pushed just above 5%, while here in New Zealand, the five-year swap rate fell 10 basis points, ended the week at 4.3%. The New Zealand dollar was down another 1.3% on a trade weighted basis. So the trade-weighted index is now at the lowest level since 2011. And that is a really important point because not only is it giving the export sector a boost, agriculture, tourism, That sort of thing, but it has really offset some of that international share market weakness. So even though in local currency terms for the month of September so far, we've seen the US market down half a percent, we've seen the UK market down one and a half percent, uh, we've seen Japan down 1.6%.
When you factor in currency movements, because the Kiwi is lower against the US dollar, against the British pound. uh against the Japanese yen, we are actually up in all of those regions in New Zealand dollar terms. So if you're an investor and you're investing your New Zealand dollars in the US or elsewhere, uh you are really benefiting from some of those currency movements. So uh not all bad out there, is it? Right. What did we have in terms of economic releases? Well, central banks were the focal point of last week. We had three big meetings: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England. As expected, the Federal Reserve increased its policy rate. So they do a range, remember, rather than a point.
Their policy range was 3.5 to 3.75, and they moved that up by 25 basis points. So it's now at 3.75.
How did the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years impact global markets?
To 4%. That was the first hike since 2023, and it was the first move under new Fed chair Kevin Walsh. Markets see more coming. Walsh was pretty clear that the Fed needs to take a bit more action to get inflation under control. It's hard to say where they will actually go with their policy rate, how far they will take it, how many more hikes from here. A lot of that will be dependent on the employment. Inflation outcomes, and that is all going to be dependent in part at least on oil prices and the situation in the Middle East. So there's a lot of things that could change. But at the moment, this looks like the first move in a new hiking cycle from the Federal Reserve.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the weekly market recap and key global moves discussed at the start of the episode?
0:00–1:47
2
Why did the New Zealand dollar fall to a 15‑year low and what does that mean for exporters?
1:47–3:37
3
How did the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years impact global markets?
3:37–5:14
4
What were the latest New Zealand housing market figures and why is the market considered a buyer’s market?
5:14–6:49
5
How did the recent dairy price auction and GDP report affect New Zealand’s economy?
6:49–8:11
6
What are the upcoming Global Flash PMI releases and why are they important for the Q3 outlook?
8:11–9:50
7
What political topics will dominate the US‑China summit in Washington and how could they influence markets?
9:50–11:11
8
Which local corporate events and earnings releases should investors watch this week?
11:11–12:20
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from On Point
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